Provoked with Darryl Cooper and Scott Horton EP:39 - A Disastrous War
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Mar 21, 2026 Arta Moeini, Managing Director of the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy and international political theorist, offers a realist take on U.S.-Iran tensions. She discusses recent Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran’s shift to attritional, asymmetric strategies. The conversation covers risks of escalation, muddled American aims, economic levers like sanctions, and the broader strategic consequences for regional and global power dynamics.
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Short War Fantasy Became Long Attrition
- The U.S. was goaded into a short-war expectation that failed, turning a planned 48–72 hour campaign into a drawn-out attritional conflict.
- Arta Moeini says Israel pushed for fast regime change in Iran, but tactical wins haven't translated to strategic victory and widened the escalation ladder.
Iran Intentionally Chooses Attrition Tactics
- Iran anticipated an attritional fight and deliberately paced attacks rather than expending all munitions at once.
- Moeini notes Iran executes a steady quota of strikes daily to prolong conflict while preserving capabilities and deterrence.
Iran's Control Not Total Closure Of Hormuz
- Iran is not trying to close the Strait of Hormuz wholesale but to control passage selectively, offering safe passage to friendly states.
- Moeini highlights China and India securing access as evidence Iran exerts selective maritime leverage.