The Joseph Carlson Show I Ran Valuation Analysis On The Most Popular Stocks
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Dec 8, 2025 Delve into the fascinating world of stock valuation with a focus on popular players like Mastercard and Meta, both labeled as having dislocated value. Explore Adobe's struggles against competition while being undervalued, and Amazon's cash flow uncertainties. Discover Nvidia's premium pricing amidst slowing growth and Uber's impressive free cash flow with disruption risks. The show also tackles Tesla's lofty expectations, Palantir's extreme valuation, and a surprising fail involving Waymo's robotaxi. Get insights on Paramount's hostile bid for Warner Bros and why Netflix remains an attractive option.
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Salesforce Priced For Doom
- Salesforce's market price reflects severe negative sentiment; even conservative DCFs show potential double-digit returns.
- Carlson calls Salesforce a 'trash bin' valuation because investors price in widespread disruption.
Google's Multi-Threaded Growth Story
- Google remains a multi-pronged growth story (search, cloud, YouTube, Waymo) and is moving from trash toward fair value.
- Carlson sees it near fair value with solid mid-teens projected returns under reasonable assumptions.
Microsoft's Premium, Reliable Position
- Microsoft typically trades in the low-30s PE and deserves a premium multiple given consistent earnings growth.
- Carlson classifies Microsoft as premium but a worthy hold for steady returns.