Not Stupid Could China benefit from the Iran war?
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Mar 24, 2026 Discussion about how global fuel shortages from the Iran war ripple through oil routes and prices. Exploration of renewables and EVs as strategic shields that could reshape energy demand. Examination of China’s economic ties to Iran and how decades of renewable investment might alter its geopolitical and market position. Brief cultural asides on film creativity and a UK initiative teaching dads hair-styling skills.
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China's Renewable Strategy Shields It From Oil Shock
- China is better insulated from an Iran-driven oil shock because of long-term renewable and EV investment.
- By 2024 China had surpassed its 2030 wind and solar targets and controls >80% of the global solar manufacturing chain, plus EV and battery dominance.
Bombing Alone Rarely Produces Political Change
- Military decapitation and aerial bombing often fail to achieve political outcomes because local social structures and passions drive long-term resistance.
- Stanley McChrystal argues bombing can intimidate but won't change hearts; leaders misread tribal and popular responses.
Hormuz Closure Threatens Food And Water Systems
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would hit many essentials beyond fuel, like food and desalinated water for Gulf neighbours.
- Iran can grant passage selectively, so the strait is effectively closed only to Iranian enemies while allies seek exceptions.