It's A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Republican Loyalty to Trump—and What It Means for the GOP’s Future
Feb 9, 2026
Gabe Fleisher, political analyst and author of Wake Up to Politics, breaks down data on Republican loyalty to Donald Trump. He explains which lawmakers bucked Trump and why, highlights key votes like national emergencies and tariffs, and contrasts ideological purists with pragmatic moderates. The conversation maps how district competitiveness and turnover reshaped the party and what that could mean for the GOP’s future.
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Most GOP Dissenters Are Gone
- Gabe Fleisher analyzed ~493 Republicans since 2017 and found only 94 ever broke with Trump on key votes.
- By 2025 that group fell to 40 and could drop to ~22 by next year due to retirements and losses.
National Emergency Votes Revealed Splits
- National emergency votes (often used to justify tariffs or border measures) produced the most public Republican breaks with Trump.
- Those votes stand out because anyone in the Senate can force a public vote, exposing dissent.
Different Metrics Highlight Different Defectors
- Susan Collins broke with Trump on seven of eight vote categories in Gabe's coding and ranks among top dissenters.
- Different methods can surface different names but Collins and Rand Paul both show frequent splits.
