The Rest Is Money 274. Would rejoining the EU be the best growth strategy?
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Apr 29, 2026 
Nick Bloom, Stanford economics professor known for work on productivity and Brexit costs, discusses his 6–8% GDP loss estimate. He explains methods for measuring the hit, how trade frictions and long uncertainty hurt growth, why an orderly approach might have reduced damage, and what rejoining the EU would mean economically and politically.
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Brexit Cut UK GDP By Six To Eight Percent
- Brexit has reduced UK GDP by about 6–8% ten years after the vote.
- Top-down comparison to 33 similar countries gives ~8% gap while firm-level panel data gives ~6%, hence the 6–8% range.
Firm Surveys Reveal Brexit's Business Impact
- Firm-level Decision Maker Panel shows EU-exposed firms underperformed after 2016.
- Survey of ~5,000 firms reveals EU-exposed growth fell relative to domestic firms, producing ~6% cumulative loss by 2025.
Scale Of The Loss In Pound Terms
- The 6–8% GDP loss equals roughly £240 billion or about £2,000 per person per year.
- Bloom frames this in public spending terms: it's roughly the size of current NHS spending (~8% of GDP).