Firewall with Bradley Tusk A Bold Prediction About Prediction Markets
Feb 12, 2026
Aaron Miller, principal at Will Ventures who invests in sports betting and prediction market startups. He explains why prediction markets are moving toward federal oversight and could become a societal source of truth. They discuss liquidity scaling beyond sports, how markets hedge real risk, state vs federal regulatory fights, and the reshaping of college sports and athlete compensation.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Prediction Markets As A New Source Of Truth
- Prediction markets can evolve beyond sports into a universal exchange that prices real-world events and becomes a societal "source of truth."
- Big VCs back this because aggregating wide opinion could outperform traditional signal sources like biased media.
Regulatory Battle Is Both Legal And Political
- Kalshi and Polymarket argue event contracts are financial instruments under the CEA and thus fall to the CFTC.
- Political ties and litigation complicate the claim, and states are fighting back with injunctions.
Sports Volume Is A Gateway, Not The Endgame
- Current prediction-market volume is heavily seasonal and dominated by sports, so annualized metrics can mislead.
- The expectation is sports will onboard users and liquidity will later expand into non-sports markets.