Episode Summary:
- Stocks discussed on today's PreMarket Prep: BA, DLTR, RIOT TSN, OTLY, WE, TSLA
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Guests:
Tim Quast, Founder/CEO, ModernIR and Market Structure Edge 35:00
Twitter: https://twitter.com/_timquast
Meet The Hosts:
Dennis Dick
Twitter:https://twitter.com/TripleDTrader
Spencer Israel
Twitter: https://twitter.com/sjisrael
Joel Elconin
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https://www.premarketprep.com/
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Unedited Transcript:
This is pre-market prep. All right. Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. Hope you all had a great weekend. And we got, we got some things to discuss today, but I, I, I swear. I was talking with the guys I'm like this close to just saying, screw it with everything. And just putting all my money on some stupid.
She bring a new coin or something like that because the FOMO is real. How was your weekend actually? Excellent. Did you see the Michigan Penn state game? I saw the ending of it. Yes. Yes, yes, no, just a great weekend. All around. Uh, just bitchy basketball. One, two. It was just very cold out, but still got outside.
Did some fun stuff. How about you? Uh, it was, I agreed. Well, you and I both, I feel like you and I are on the same haircuts, like, well, this is not the first time. It's the second or third time that you and I have gotten the haircuts and the. I think we're on the same cycle. Yeah, I think so. I think so. All right.
So this says the new T is kind of throwing me off a little bit. Sorry, sorry. Sorry. Is that what I'm supposed to do now? I'm supposed to redo the quick rundown. Yeah. Go for it. A strong close on Friday, strong after hours. Action. Up 13 handles 91 and a quarter. What we're going to be thinking about today is 94 and a quarter.
That's the whole time closing high looks like we got a good shot of taking that out. A crew down a buck, 17 79, 62 under 80 bucks. Wow. Gold down 2 50, 18 66, 10 silver going the same way down a diamond, uh, 24, 25, 25. Bitcoin just won't get out of that. 60 handle up 1680 at 65,009, 15 and a theory $92 and 50 cents at 47 79.
The quarter is triple D still lurking around. Did he get a haircut also? Oh yeah. My hair look at my hair. Cut. It's beautiful. Definitely on the same haircut cycle as you guys I'll tell you that much. I haven't been in a hair like to get my hair cut in two years. Just the wife kind of clips around a little bit every once in a while she thinks she's an amateur barber, so she's doing good.
What do you want to tell me? What's up? The thing about the intro. Okay. You're okay. I look great.
Tennis. Okay. Every beer maker in Canada is cringing. Okay. He's wearing a cores. T-shirt. Did you notice that one more?
I'm actually representing a t-shirt. I don't even drink cores. That was the, a chorus teacher that I don't even know if I own a chorus teacher.
I don't know, dude. I was Sleeman I don't want to play it again to find out. Yeah, maybe we should. I know Dennis. Nice. My shirt is today. It's a little pocket tee. That's kind of fancy. It's got no wrinkles, no beer shirt. I actually, uh, I probably need to say, I probably need a hair cut. You know, the new things with Benzinga is there's going to be a dress code.
That's what I hear it. I know suits a suit. So there you're going to have to ship me a suit. At least the top I'll go like mark canes or he's dead. You know, he got the suit and the tie and the top, and then you get the jogging pants on the bottom. That's the way I'll be every weatherman in America. Yeah.
Okay. Let's let's do it back to Elon Musk. What Elon, you must do this weekend. I see stock down. He actually just Tweed again. He's been going at Bernie Sanders all weekend for some reason, but yeah. To your point then it's well, you're referring to, is he sold a little bit more on a Friday night? Uh, he, he sold or not Friday night sorta on a Friday, but at the filing hit on Friday night, he sold, uh, uh, blah, blah, blah, another 1.2 million shares at an average price of 10 29 67.
Um, we've got the math going. I mean, where are we? I'm promised I stopped doing the running count here. So do we know we need the thing to go do the math on how many shares he sold? Because we know he wants to sell 17. It's at 171 million. He said it was going to sell 10%. So he's going to sell like 17 mil we're up to.
So we're getting there, but there's still 10 million ago. So the stock seems to go down every day because all the muscle more, the gift of y'all guests was two days ago when they rallied after day one day, one up to 1100 bucks. And. Everybody's like, oh, it's over. It's not over do the grade two math. He's got a lot more stock to go.
And then they sold the next day and they rammed it and they keep ramming it down. And so now we're at a thousand, I will say huge level for Tesla, $987. That's the low from three days ago, that's the psychological marker a thousand. It does appear that we're going to test that level here in the pre-market.
We are obviously down 25 points at 1,006 it's only 20 bucks away. So we look like we want to test it. Does it bounce? It does a hold the 9 87. That's the critical level for it to hold or does Elon Musk selling pressure, which he will be selling more stock again. And obviously we're looking at 10 million shares Maura.
So he's not quite halfway there. Uh, continue to put pressure on the stock.
All right. First of all, full disclosure, I still have a long position and I'm not sounding like. Have you sold any it's a small position
I saw they didn't, I didn't rebuy it. Okay. This is, and I'm not buying puts on it. I think there's considerable more downside than the stock for a couple of different jobs. All we do is talk. No, no, because 9 87 she's too obvious of a number. Okay. So if I was, if I was true short term trading in there and I was looking for a bounce.
Yeah. You know, maybe for a bounce, but you got this nine 50 level right here. Right. You got the gap to fill all the way down to 900. But I think what this is doing is there's never been a really, a good reason to short the stock. A lot of people tried, but right now we talk about overhead supply. There is, you know, you're building up overhead supply now from everyone between 1,012 50 now.
Right. So there's a lot of people stuck. So even after Ilan is done, There's still going to be people that are going to there's overhead supplies, uh, is building up. So fill the gap maybe at 900. I am not going to figure any kind of retracements. Yeah, I don't think you're getting there. Maybe, maybe the Elon Musk continuing sales here.
No, I know, we know long-term Tesla, I think is a lot lower long. Long-term like, I think if you put Tesla on your line into a portfolio, a thousand dollars, you're going to look back at a one day at like five or $400 to $300 and you'd be like, why did I do that? But I think it's still got, the story is still hot.
So it doesn't matter at all. I mean, I think we're like in 1998 for Tesla, I think we could have another year or two of going up before he eventually, you know, everybody realizes, oh my gosh, everybody's doing EBS now, the world, it's all going to be Tesla. And we're all going to have a drive time. And I'm telling you, it's all going to be all kinds of different EVs coming from everywhere.
So Miami play is still Fisker. I've talked about it. I've still long and I haven't sold any shares at all. Um, it's going to have pullbacks. It's going to give you opportunities. These things do not go up in a straight line. I think this green venture, it could be a $50 stock with one car. They sell one car Fisker or they, they got the ocean and they got all kinds.
They've got more in the lineup here and that guy is pretty smart. So I think you're going to see like once to start production, but you're going to see more. You don't know about the pear is the ocean. And then there's the pair. What's the pair. Check that one out. Look it up here from Fisker Perez and like the fruit, not as in like there's two of them, like the, the, the Fisker pair say here, I'll pull, I'll pull up the images.
Do we have images of this? Of course. Is this still a concept or is it actually going to go into. The first repair. I don't actually know. I think it's honoring Claire. I see one right there, pea, or find a, give Google images credit, or they yell at you. Yeah, here we can go with that one. That kind of looks like it showed that ocean and it does all that.
No, that's the ocean. That is the ocean. I don't know. Wow. I th I'm a bully, you know, why. And this guy has been everywhere. He's obviously worked for a lot auditors it's auto designer. I mean, I, I, sometimes you just got to say, do I believe in the founder or not? I think Fisker is a smart person, not Elon Musk, Elon.
Musk's what are you saying? Joel? You keeping her up. What you, why do you like him so much? I mean, I've just seen interviews of him. The guy seems like maybe, you know, maybe, uh, and obviously I've had a couple of good runs at Fisker already, too. So
like, I mean, we bought a 15 and then went to 30 in like a week and I'm like, okay, we gotta ring the register on someone that came all the way back and given us a second shot to retake it again. I think eventually going to see that 30 again on Fisker, but I don't chase like on all these stocks, you don't need to chase these things.
These are longer term plays. This isn't like a short term day trading play for me. If it went to 30 today, Well, that would be too much too fast when they go parabolic and they go crazy during the register and then he'd come out and he'd get it back. But I mean, this has been a slow, steady climb. It is not parabolic.
Do I think it's going to eventually pull back to give you an opportunity. I think you get another shot to get back in this thing, maybe even under 20, but I think you got to take that shot. I think it's still, I think people are going to start to realize not just this Fisker, but you know, a lot of these Evie plays and a lot of these DB plays aren't gonna work out in Fisker is still speculative capital.
I mean, it might not work out, but at the same time they've got the deal magnet. They're going to start production. Magna's a real company, you know, what do we think? Like, you know, even look, we're looking at Magnus church, that kind of looks pretty good. MGA. Not saying, you know why I don't like Magna. Why?
Because, uh, Frank Stronach owns a company and he bought a. Yeah. He bought my favorite racetrack in Detroit and, uh, in my dad's when he bought it, my dad said, man, they're just going to do that. They're just buying it for the land and they're going to sell it and close it. And they did it. Yeah. He owns, um, he owns, uh, Churchill downs.
He's a, he's big into horse racing, very big in horse, but that stock chart looks good, but that's, that's important that they got a contract with a big company. I mean, how many of the other Evie companies can say that? Right? Because they don't, the production is going to happen with Magnus. So a lot of these companies have to raise money, trying to figure out how to do it.
Think about how much struggles Tesla had with production off the hop. Think about how much of your money they were burning. And they're like, oh, they're going to run out of cash. Think about all those struggles. You know that, and then, you know, you've got to deal with Magna here. So that helps with all of that.
Cause, but you know, regard, everybody's got their opinion, there's some new TV plays. Um, you know, there's a lot of people don't like Fisker, I mean, results so far speak for themselves. Stock has done pretty good. Um, but you know, it could go to zero, it could be a zero. So that's why I stay diversified, you know?
And we talk about that all the time. Know I own like, I don't know what 80 stocks or so 90 stocks my longterm portfolio. So if that one went to zero, okay. I would lose 0.8% of my net worth. That would suck. But I mean, at the same time, you've got to have some capital in, in, in growth and speculum capital.
So you pick your stocks. I don't have Tesla longterm portfolio for the simple reason, but I tell you, you know, people, you know, it doesn't go my long-term portfolio, but it's my day trading board oil a lot. It's not in there right now, but you know what? I try the 9 87 for a bounce. Hey B, we got to see what it does there does it like, is it hit it hard?
You know, what does it do? Does it do the undercut and rallies? A lot of times I go 97 and go down to nine 80 and then get back above it and then show some life. You kind of want them when they start showing life. But the problem is with men LMS still sell 10 million, 10 million more shares. People are trying to get ahead of that and they keep dumping ahead of that saying, he's not done yet.
It will probably have its rally before he's done though. So I don't think like, wait until the day he's done selling and it's going to bottom that day. We'll probably bought them before that. So we're in the, kind of the middle of it. Is it, are you early on the treadmill? It's hard to say, but we've lost 200.
We will have 20%. So it's a suggestion. And how much is he? It, he's not even sold half of the steak, right. Or half the first half is going to be the worst because there's people getting ahead of it. Now there's, you know, people short, the stock, those people are going to have to cut. There's probably people that put the stock short on just anticipating that he's going to be selling.
It's going to go down. Those people eventually got to get out too. Not saying it's going to be a huge short squeeze and Tesla. It's had a short squeeze forever. It's for a short and just probably way less than it was years ago. But there's some short term traders in there playing the short side, trying to anticipate that he sounded more and they're right.
They've been correct. So I, I think you're a little early, but that levels at 97, if you wanted to try it, it's a level, you know, at least we got a loud, you hit it yet in the pre-market just to give you out. If you're looking, uh, actually hasn't even hit a thousand yet. Uh, pre market, low standing at.
Pre-market one double oh 2.505 and a half bucks, but there's one thing you don't necessarily have to shorten it. But I mean, if we could talk to people, you know, if they're attempting along, you know, just to be aware of that, you know, this is like, this is market structure. This is dynamics. There's a big seller in there.
Right? Do you want to get, do you want to figure out what if he decides to sell another 10%? I don't think that's going to happen. I don't know anything, but we don't know yet. And he can do whatever he wants. We, all we know is he said, he's going to sell 10%. He was going to buy, buy it. He's at like 4%. So it's still 6% to go.
So you're right. This market structure, this is a big seller in the market and it's not just him pushing it down. It's everybody else getting ahead of it, pushing it down. And you also, you also said funding security for 20, but I want to, before we move away from this, I want to bring up this tweet that Mitch just dropped, um, here in our private chat.
But I look at the screen from a Henrik Fisker. Okay. This is from November 4th. Okay. Yeah. I just have too many things to analysis. My PR team told me to wait until November 17th, which is in two days, but I think I will let a few things out on November 16th as we have a secret pre event for journalists coming to the LA auto show reminder that L L E show is Friday.
So maybe news this week out of, I love being long. When I have a catalyst, I'll have a catalyst. All of a sudden you do what's money. Mitch of Fisker. I met you in the background. See their money match. What are your thoughts on Fisker? And there's a reason. Well, I don't hit you, Dennis. It's my favorite. I would have taken that lunch any day, but, uh, it looks like there's no lunch there.
Take your on the same side. When I, when I say something and Mitch is like on the exact opposite, he pops it and want to do a lunch bat. Remember what was the one you killed me on? Like, you knocked me on that.
It was a ride. It was bullish on rights. Somehow I did everything. I bought the rip. I did everything like on paper. I was buying the rip and everything. And it's just like, I know this is the wrong side of the trade. Went straight down for like four days after that. I can tell you what day it was. Uh, one thing I'd mentioned about Elvis first is they are taking the Tesla motto, right?
How the Tesla really get big. So it focused first on us construction, right? And then it started going international building, uh, kind of their factories in what Germany in China. This is the same strategy that Fisk is coming at it. So they're trying to use magnet to go ahead and build here and build internationally and have different places so that they don't have to worry about sending their calls.
Their car overseas and then getting that, all that tax. So that's another advantage that I'm giving Fisker. They're really being smart in that. We're going to do factories here. We're going to do factories in China. Then we'll do a factory in Europe and then we'll keep building in each one. And that send our cars across seas, which is what really kills the value in the margins.
Yeah, that's, that's expensive. So yeah, the trade is just simply not going, like it's going to cool. It's been hot. Don't kid yourself, Evie trades really hot here and maybe it starts to cool off, but I don't believe, I think we're still somewhat in the early innings on the trade and you just gotta be careful because some of these stocks going to work out, some of them aren't, I'm still along for.
You know, I still liked GM and obviously I didn't rebuy it, but it pulls back. I will get back at my general motors is still like all the big autos. I think they're all going to be turning it around on V I think we're all going to be driving electric cars. I'm still logging my Lac and our reported earnings, or at least it had some commentary or something today.
Um, I'm still along the L T H M. Those are pure lithium plays, obviously a bet on the derivative. The thing behind the thing, uh, as Jason Rasnick likes to say, um, and you know, those stocks have been great. I mean, I bought L lithium at, I think, $5. It's $31 and sold half to do that, to do that. When the stock doubles, I sell half and then I'm playing with the house's money forever.
It's sometimes a mistake, but it makes me feel more comfortable in some of these positions. Fisker with basically the same thing, uh, doubled. And I was like, okay, I buy that. He's got Selly. So, okay. 20 minutes on Tesla and EVs. Come on. What's next. Well, we, we, we just had an M and a deal. Get announced, Dennis, what are you doing over there?
Do you leaning on the buy button or something? Yeah, he has his elbow just found elbow, uh, uh, CA Casper guys, Casper asleep, which only IPO showed in, uh, February of last year, uh, is going private now. Um, they don't like their stock price. This is a bit of interesting one. So the IPO at a market cap or a valuation of around $500 million, they're at about $150 million market cap right now.
And now. They're being acquired for, uh, $6 and 90 cents a share, which puts them at that's X unit, nice, healthy, premium. And so that puts them at one, a $300 million market cap. I don't think I've ever traded the stock Jasper. Wow. Look at this PR. Well, they're on a hundred million dollar company. They don't hit my filters very often.
I don't, I don't, I don't think I've ever traded the stock. Look at these, look at this purple innovations. This, I mean, this thing it's getting laid out. It's the same name. So now their mattress, it's the same idea. It's mattress in a box is what it is. I think people are figuring everyone bought a new bed during the pandemic and no one, you know, now people are going to be going to Airbnb and Marriott and everything.
And they're not going to be buying new beds. I guess. That's the thinking on that? Oh, your sympathy trade here is purple, I guess, right? That what you're saying? That's the only ones. The only one. Yeah, we don't have care about Casper. Now it's getting taken over the Arabs will take it over 6 96, 82. There's no money left to be made there.
If you're a long overnight, congratulations during the register and move on per fall. Sometimes they sympathy plays pop. Uh, is it too? I don't know. It's up 7%. That's pretty good sympathy pop already. So if you're buying a seven, are you giving up the edge already? Maybe we needed to know that 15, seven minutes ago when we could buy 1375 and somebody.
I dunno, that's just a weird one because it's been public for like a year and a half or a little more than that, and kind of Mr. IPO and the tale of two markets. So we've talked about that. There's some stocks that are just relentless, the bid, and there's some stocks that are relentlessly sold. So I guess when you're a smaller or your PE firm and you look in diamonds in the rough and you've got, you know, a company, that's sure you think it's worth more than 150 mil.
Well, let's throw some money out and that's by it. It's also not their fault that the IPO to February of 2020, you know, like a month before the best time. The month before the world shut down, uh, by the time, I mean, people were buying or buying anything the first couple of times. Um, anyway, so I just saw that come across, but there was some other movers you have this morning.
Somebody has to, before we go. So Hertz is officially back on the big board. Hey. Yeah. Yeah. So when did that happen? Like five days ago. I see her back on the big board happened last week. Yeah. Yeah. So it's back. It's back how bad they got diluted. Um, on the Hertz, on the Hertz IPO, they weren't actually raising it.
This is not good guys. They weren't raising any money. All right. They were in the money. Wasn't going to the company. It was going to the seldom shareholders. Okay. This is not like, uh, it's not a good situation. I think for, for, for retail investors, this is good for the people that brought this thing into the bank.
And are getting paid, but this is not good for a, I like being able to trade a Hertz car again. I used to like pairing those stocks up. So I liked that that's on the big. Twenty-five bucks your level on HTZ. Brett's got a hold that level. That's the level of all levels of that. It gets breached. Get the hell out.
I would say. But as long as it's above that, you can take a shot all the way back down a long way as it come down far enough that they're rocking and rolling. We were, wow. You know what? I wouldn't I'd say this. I would not want to be short car. Um, if it gets above, get to get up a Friday or Thursday, I got 2 76.
I'm gonna make a run for 300. I don't have the curve chart here. You gotta stop yourself out. The low, that was the low of the move would be 2 45. It's like one, that's a 30 point stop. But I mean, that's your out. So again, always luck when you put on a trade don't look, how much money are you gonna make?
Look how much money you were willing to lose and then have your stop point. So, because that's how you've got to analyze risk, always. So I'm looking lower, the move to 45 that's 30 point or 2 67. So I guess 22 points. So you'd have to hold to that really to give it a fair shake. I don't know if I want to lose 10% on it, so I probably wouldn't take it here, but it doesn't, it doesn't set up bad.
I want to move to a couple of movers this morning. Um, we were talking before we hopped on the show this morning about Boeing. Well, not just Boeing, we talked about all, all the airline makers, but Boeing in particular, because they do have a headline this morning and they got an order for two new 7 77 freighters.
Uh, I think it was their first new order for a while in, in quite some time, uh, Airbus to also got some orders I saw. Right, right. Um, but yeah. So Boeing turning higher this morning up to 2 28, not as stock, we discussed too much these days. Well, it's been sleepy and this market has been rip-roaring and we are in two.
You know, this month coming up is typically, you know, run. The Christmas is typically a very strong month for the markets. The S and P is making new highs are going to make new highs again here probably. Um, you've been running and tech has been running the show here for a bet. The question is, does the show start to get run by the laggerts and the next week?
I think so, uh, this could, you know, does this kickstart Boeing is so much memory, two 30 is maybe not the stock that I'd like. Um, and the airlines have just, you know, look at AALS move on Friday. Like. Um, the thing got hit really heard, um, L U V has comes down, but now you look at them and you think, could you buy the dip?
Do you have some memory on some of these stocks? I think you could do them as trades AAL. I would stop myself at Friday's low Luvs come down substantially, but you're down here near support. Again, you know, the cruise lines come down. I think there's still a reopening trade here. I think this rally is actually, or this sell off is actually an opportunity to buy some of these stocks as trades.
I would stop myself out on those of the move CCL, for instance, and you know why we're talking to Boeing and I go on all these, cause they're all just paired up together. They're they're all cut from the same cloth, obviously 2131, the lower, the move on CCL. So, Joel, I don't know. I threw a whole bunch of cruise lines, airlines, Boeing.
I'm not buying Boeing up eight bucks, but you buy some of the cruise lines and the airlines that have been hitting. Do they have a balance because of Boeing today? That's my question. Yeah. I mean, they've had good sell-offs did you say freighter? You said 7, 7, 7 freighters though. Is that. Passenger planes.
Yeah. That's good. Move their freight aircraft. Yeah. I mean, I think that's one thing working against the airlines and cruise is crude. It's starting to come off a little bit. Um, we've talked about the reopening trade date that you're coming into areas to support. I just kind of got the feeling that, you know, travel's going to be, you know, redefined and maybe it's, you know, that's true.
And I think maybe everyone's going to take an Evie and go to a park or something, you know, sort of an RV electric plane. Uh, we're not, that'd be a very long extension or
I don't know the clean planes here. We are trying to make the world cleaner. The plates are the dirtiest things. I look in the sky and you know, my kids, when they're my girl old girl and she was younger. It's like, what is that? And the sky looking at the chemical trail, the chem trail of these planes. Um, why don't we get the electric plane?
That's what I'll invest in the electric plane they charge. And the scar is working on an electric plane. Do we do have some companies work? It's gotta be somebody working on that. We already have that we got Joe, Jovi's doing the fricking, uh, Uber for the sky, right? Isn't that? It's like helicopters, right?
It's the first step, right? It's like if air taxis. Yes. But are they electric? Yes, 100%. What's the company, Joe. There's a couple there's. Joby. Yeah, there'll be one. There's another one too. Um, did you guys see the fine motorcycle over the weekend? There's a flying motorcycle that goes like, whoa. Yes. And invest in a flying motor.
It's like, what were you smoking this weekend? Okay. This is another way you guys say we were doing one of those Elon Musk creative sessions. I think, you know, I must probably get someone with ideas from our show, creative sessions, man, the creative sessions. ACHR super spec man saying is also working on, uh, Evie planes.
AC I've wrote them both down. Wow. These stocks been killed. So nobody's on this story. This story is hated right now. I see a chart goes down every day and that's their specs. What do you expect?
I haven't had a lot of luck, but Boeing levels it's bid. It's a, there's nothing on here in the dailies. I mean, there is one level of keep an eye on at, uh, 2 28 66. That's where we're at right now that your October 12th high, and then two 30 to 10. That was, that'd be the next level. The other thing that I think the whole retreat, I mean, they had problems before, right before the.
You don't remember everything that happened. So maybe they're getting those behind them. The high rebound has been on since the COVID law has been to 78, 57. And I think that's right around the 50% retracement of this whole move. When this went from what four 50 down to yeah, 2 67, you get back and you hold 2 67 for an extended period of time.
That could turn very bullish on bowling. The monthly's are looking good, too long, wave away. No, it's not that the way these markets move guys be there three days. So you think it can go, do you think all through here today? Here's the problem. When you buying a stock like Boeing, it's been in the gutter for so long.
There's so many bag holders here. It's hard to like kickstart and get it going. It, it might, it might kickstart and get going, but you know, you do have the huge level at two 30 and then you look past that. I get to 32 and then he got bag hold as a two 40. It's why it's so much tough to buy these docks.
When they've been in the gutter, this line, who's too many bag holders up top willing to sell their shares. So I'd, I'd love to get talked into some of these stocks, you know, same thing with all these cruise lines airlines. I mean, they do, they have bounce trades on them. I think they could have bounced trades, but are these things ripping and roaring and making new highs?
And these are the ones you want to long-term invest in. I don't think. So I feel like every month I get, I come to this question like, oh, do I want to buy the airlines here? Like long? I kind of do sometimes too once a month. I asked myself that question. And then the answer is usually, is always now, but I know that's a long term trend.
Not your friends. Yeah. Yeah. It's been that way for years. Yeah. Anyway, three minutes, we had a few more things before we, before we bring in Tim monitor, we can do like dollar tree, which is up. Cause they got an activist, a stake in dollar tree told mantle rage, took a $1.8 billion stake in the company and they are going to unlock value apparently.
So they say, man, those stories are now. Because I let my kids go wild in there. Lets the kids go wild in there too. It's like, oh, what are we going to do? Let's go to dollar tree and that's some stuff up. It's awesome. You go in there. I'm like, you guys are allowed to pick out two toys each, you know? And he goes there and he walked out.
It was $8. This is awesome. The kids like it just as much as like, if they go buy a $40 toy, they're like my, my four-year-old's looking around like, oh, and then she trades this toy for this toy and this toy and for this toy I'll whole time. Well, I want this too. It's awesome. All right. I guess it's gonna be $2 now.
Right? Cause we're going to the $2 tree cause of inflation, but still pretty cheap. It's the all time high for dollar tree is what it is. Dollar tree. These stocks just, you know, it's dog making new all time high. I never liked to be short stocks, making new all time highs, but it's had a long run here. So, and you are, uh, Joel that 2 20, 37.
We have actually not made the all time high back in April. To twine, big level. Holy DLTR a level of all levels. Joel, super-duper absolute resistance here. Maybe nothing's absolute to Twan one 20. What do you think of that? 1 20, 37 from April? Uh, we traded up to 1 23 in the pre-market. Yeah, that don't count though.
Now it's back down under one 20, cause that's only
one 20 in the regular session, a breakout to new all-time highs. Then it's interesting. If that one 20 holds be careful. Yeah. Beat. I, I may use that as a target and a, if it hits that, keep on going. How's the other ones there's dollar general. Yeah. Dollar general. Then I can throw big lots. I throw a big lots and then, oh, big lots of sleepy.
I can get talked into big lots here. BI G what do you think retail's kind of turned it around. The S the big lots, wherever, where they went wrong, as they started to clean up their stores and people like me, don't like that, like to go in there and, you know, by the, by the aspirin, you know, that's, you know, box, it's all banged up.
Cause you know, the aspens okay. Inside and you get like 50 cents off. So, I mean, that's where they kind of went wrong. A little bit, was trying to be like a little fancier stores when everybody kind of just want a discount and they liked the feel of the little rougher around the edges store. But I could talk, I liked that kind of don't mind this big lots chart you had the big.
You know, and at the end of October, when we went from 44, up to 53, and now we've consolidated for a couple of days here and stop going down right around a little 50% retracement. Joel, I'm kind of like don't mind. Yeah. I mean, you've got a couple of lows in the same area. I mean, I don't mind that. I just want it hasn't went on my shopping list, a ton of monthly support.
I mean, this was monthly support at the end of last year and it had a nice run in a nice, nice run in January of last year. Maybe this is one, uh, you'd have maybe had some tax selling still going on a little bit. If anybody has any losses in anything, uh, now you're getting a little bit of a pop 52 looks like you're good.
Go. Little trading range, maybe 48 to 52, but not looking bad on the chart. I could talk, I could talk to that one. I don't mind that. Sure. Alright. Oh, one more before Tim quick, uh, olderly OTL was your big loser of the day. Um, earnings is what this is. They, uh, written they're down 14%. Uh, and I'll give you the numbers here.
EPS and law, seven 10th per share sales, 1 71 versus $185 million estimate, uh, sales, uh, guidance for the year. Oh 635 million versus $694 million actually missed on their sales guidance and their sales for the last quarter. And this is your big loser of the morning here, OTL Y beyond beyond meat Oatley group.
I mean, I guess writing was on the wall here, so oatmeal. True story. Oh boy. So Emily bought some of this, uh, oatmeal. Right? And she, she left it at our house and she said she tried it, our house and she hated it. And so we left it in the refrigerator and I'm like, I was looking at it and I, I I'll, I'll try it, you know?
So I tried it, I looked on it. The date was okay. It was horrible. And then I poured it out in the sink and I don't, I don't want to tell you what the color look like. I'm telling you now it wasn't white off white. It was more like. I always not good. So there, if I would have, uh, taken the, not the eyeball task, but the taste bud test, I mean, it was absolutely horrible, but that you did make a low under $10.
This is a new IPO, uh, a new all-time lows. So keep an eye on nine 80. That's your pre-market level. I'm not a fan at all. Stocks making new all time lows. You gotta go
to all time lows. Okay. Mark is structured. Tesla. Let's do it.
Good morning, sir. Good to see you guys happy Monday to you and Spencer. I owe you an apology, I think on Friday. And I was in an aircraft at that moment. Ah, he's doing something in dispose or whatever. So yeah, we were, uh, we were, we were down catching the rolling stones and Zach brown and Atlanta along with 50,000 of our closest friends in town tonight are they will tell you.
Yeah, it's wow. The rest of us have no excuse after watching, uh, Mick Jagger and, and Ronnie wood and Keith Richards that do do their thing for an hour and a half. Uh, you know, and they're there my mother's day. And here's Mick Jagger running down the stage. He's skipping, he's jumping around on one foot.
It's crazy. 7 78, 78 years old. He is, he is, he's not pitchy. I made it. You listened to his recordings in the sixties and now they're all the same as identical. They have it's I was shocked at how good they were. So, uh, that's what I was doing. And that was a, so the effect and the aircraft, uh, you know, blotted out any thought of a Friday Benzinga with a patch.
Do you know why they sounded so good? Because it was probably like, it was probably like a pre, like a prerecorded concert. Yeah. They do that stuff all the time. Dentist don't be naive, but Jack Brown, I mean, that would have been great too. I love Zach brown. We do too. Right. Yeah. Just plus one other little, little, one other little tidbit, because this is, this is the, the, the, you know, two things come to mind and I'll proceed it with this.
It's the, I love these sayings from the Proverbs desire, accomplished the sweet to the soul. And then George Carlin hard work is for people short on talent. So that's been my motto, but, you know, market structure edge was the big winner of best day trading software at the bending of FinTech awards. So we, that was the, that was reason for champagne and Atlanta.
We were, uh, we were delighted. It was because we I'll tell you, we put our shoulder to that wheel to the best of our ability. And so thank you guys. And thank the edge mob, hashtag edge mob for, for that. We're we're, uh, we're delighted to have you on the wind. Where are you, Tim? I am in Denver at the moment.
I'm in the modern I, our offices in Denver. Oh, you're back in the office. I am briefly, yeah. Mountain in the background. Exactly. I haven't been to Steamboat in weeks because we've been all over the place and we'll be in Boston this week, then in Charleston, then in Austin. And finally back in Steamboat, I think about December 8th.
So, uh, we've got a bunch of ground cover. Anyway. I heard Tesla. Is that what you guys
okay. Let's uh, I saw you were talking about big lots. Uh, you were talking about Oatley. Uh, Joel wants to ask about Tessa, I think, because we're wondering what it does to the market structure. When you know, you have a, a whale among whales in the market with you, right? So, and it's, and it is informative, uh, because you can, it's a, it's a great lesson on how the market works, the supply chain of the stock market.
So this is market structure edge. And if you ha you folks who use it, you know, we talk about supply and demand all the time. So that's what we're looking at. We're looking at demand on the top supply on the bottom. I'll briefly explain that if you, if you want to join along, go to market structure, edge.com, hit requests, free-trial put your name and email in and you can follow along.
So what we're looking at is 30 trading days here for Tesla, with demand, which is an algorithm that takes into account the various behaviors that drive their four big reasons people buy and sell stocks. The. Uh, the characteristics, the short-term prices and its association with a derivative, that's really what it comes down to.
So we never heard that before. Actually. I want to write that down there. Say that again. I've never heard that before. Okay. So people buy, buy, buy, and sell stocks for the story, the characteristics, the short-term prices and the association with the derivative. So that's put some calls and swaps and other contracts for difference.
That is it. That's the summation of demand and those things fluctuate. And it's why we pay attention to month end and options expirations because those purposes fluctuate. And then the supply side in the stock market today is borrowed or created stock shortly. So when here's the interesting thing. So the, they look what was happening to the supply side in Tesla, right before the stock drop.
So everybody, all the market makers probably for Elon Musk are already working in this transaction. So they short the stock. So w why? Because they can offset their risk. If they're a riskless principal, they're not going to front run the trade, but they can offload the risk associated with working the trade for Elan.
And so they short the stock, the stock goes down and they call it. Their exposure. So short vine goes up to 54% and then drops all the way down to 41% was a huge swing. When you're talking about a stock that trades, uh, at times 40, 40, $50 billion of stock a day, it's a crazy amount. And then here's the demand side.
So demand was still very strong at the same time. But when you have demand at the ceiling and supply rising, get out, it's one of the classic lessons of market structure. I look at it now and say, this isn't so bad. I don't think Tesla is about to fall apart. I think that equilibrium is very close here and probably sentiment turns.
And so if you're watching that as a trader, you want to know when does demand begin to rise and if supply remains low, the price is going to rise too. That's it's that simple. Uh, so I think that that's how the market absorbed a massive known event. Elon Musk selling at least 7 billion of stock and a Betty sold more than that.
I bet. Well, you know, he probably did. He probably did 10 billion, just like he said, he would and it's come out in pieces, but it all probably happened right here. Cause that's how these transactions work. If Pfizer wants to, uh, repurchase a bunch of stock, Goldman Sachs goes and buys $5 billion like that.
And then it works. It's that process works its way through the Margaret accelerators, accelerated share repurchase. And there is a delay in Tim's correct. There's a delay on the filings, obviously when they hit the Friday sales, Spencer, do we know? Let that hit Friday night? What do we know when those sales, just to, to talk to each point, do we know when those sales actually occurred on Tesla?
Yeah. So it was Friday night is when it reports it was no, it actually, the filing says the filing says the date came out really fast was Friday. Yeah. That one came out really, but some, but we know on the original one, we didn't start seeing filings until Wednesday and it was Monday. Right. So it's, they don't always hit that quick.
That one did hit. We've we've looked at this in many re literally scores of activist situations where you have a required 13 D filing that details when you bought or sold things. And then we go look at the data and say, well, it's impossible. It had to happen before because the market couldn't absorb these things and that that's okay.
That's what, that's not, there's nothing wrong with that. That's how you use a prime broker to help you facilitate a transaction. Prime brokers are our brokers who will provide a range of services, capital execution services, and so on. And they're going to work that in a broad based fashion, and then you report it, right?
So these transactions occurred. Well, it, there's not a perfect match to those things, but you can see it traders. You can, you can see that stuff coming. If you see this event and there's news, you know, That's the go because it's good. It's already happened. You're going to see that divergence. That's a good question here, Tim.
Why? I mean, why can't someone make a market? Like this is what I like some like Goldman or Morgan. I won't mention eight firms. Like they'll come in and they'll say, Hey, I'll do this. I'll do everything at nine 50. Right. Everything I'll clean you up. I made does he have to do it? And all of a sudden you see this huge print or it'll have to be like nine and a quarter.
Well, nobody's making a market on 10 shares of Tesla. So there's no market maker. That's going to absorb all that one below. That's a lot works. Yeah. When you're selling $10 million worth, not 10 million times a thousand. So that's the math. I'll do it at 800 and then we'll work it out in the open market.
Never leave our house again. So temp bottom line on Tesla and the market structure. Take us right back to her original question there, obviously, you know, we've seen the demand or the supply issue from muskier. W what is the market structure looking at now going. Well, here's the thing. So demand is still falling.
See that this demands returning to five look at the supply side is also reverted at the same time. That suggest to me that we're very close to this, that somewhere around it's it's at 5.4 now, I think so that's still above. That's still above the axis of five. We think of five and we just normalized the supply demand to a 10 point scale.
That's all we did. So we can have a very simple way human minds, like the idea of tens, uh, that, you know, fall, anything above five is, is excess demand. It could stop at about let's call it four and then reverse and rise. Again. These conditions to me, don't predict that Tesla goes to 800. I'm not seeing that in this data.
I could be wrong, of course, but I look at that and say ahead in the next week, price turns maybe even in less time than that. Remember options. Yeah. Options expire Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, this week. Index options and then triple witching. Uh, so the people are going to look at that. I would, as a trader, if I had any kind of muscle, I'd say I'm buying calls.
I started buying calls to move the price just so I could unload those calls by Friday. It's a possibility. And I think there's a setup for that. All right. Is there anything else, anything else on your radar? Well, so I think in the same vein, we should talk about this great surge. And I tweeted this stuff Monday.
I said, look at Evie. You know, you look at the supply demand balance and the whole of EBV. You can look at cloud computing. You could look at communication services. All of those things indicated gains while all of that's gone away, by the way. So cloud competing, if you're in cloud computing, time to be out communication services, still room because the demand side is still strong, supply sides, declining EBV.
Here's the interesting thing. I could just look at the whole overall portfolio. This is giving us the averages for the overall portfolio with 13 companies in it. Look at this. This is why E V searched. There was a massive departure between demand and supply. See how supply plunged and demand. Well that portends a big surge.
Now. Sure. You can say this is the infrastructure bill. Yes, but you've got a great setup that will tell you that it's coming now. Where is it? Well, the supply side's fine, but the demand side's done. So if you get out of your Evie and wait for the next time, if, and if you've missed it, if you missed the exit, just stay because that'll turn again.
Uh, but that's not going away. It's not going away. No one is, if you look at the top end of these. So look at here's quantum scape, Fisker, Nick Nicola, lucid, Lordstown, they're all tens. But look at their short vine, save for Lordstown. Shouldn't be in Lordstown, the rest of these, not that. I mean at 40% short, remember the S and P 500 is 43% short.
So these Evie stocks are still have a tighter supply chain than the broad market. And in less than, until that changes, you know, th th I look at it and say, there's still a good story. And an Evie just don't expect the kind of 12, 13, 18% gains we saw. Can you, can you just explain one more time for you go, because we talk this all the time, short volume, much different than short interest.
Just a, I'll let you explain your data there on short volume, because you're talking about the actual trading of the market on a daily basis, not looking at, you know, what's being held to. Right. Short interest is a 1974 measure and it has not changed since then. So don't rely on a 1974 measure to tell you what to expect in 2021, short volume is a 2009 measure created by FINRA to, uh, to measure the amount of trading volume coming from borrowed stock and believe it or not almost half the volume does.
And so what market makers exactly, because of that, we've talked over and over and over about the association between the market making exemption from the short locate rules and mean stocks happened in car. You can see it with, if the, if the market makers are not creating stock and demand, surge is what will happen, the price, it will skyrocket until those things that just, and you can see that.
So that's what short volume is vital measure today. It's one of the things we're really keyed in on, you know, one of the things we've done with edge is to say, here are the things you should find. The next step for us is for us to find it for you. Where are the divergence is occurring between supply and demand that predict these outcomes.
And it's very predictable. It's not perfect. There's no perfect solution. But all we're doing is saying, this is how the market works and you can take advantage of that. All right, Tim Quas joins us every single Monday from market structure. Mondays, the link to his platform market structure edge is up on the screen.
It's also in the description and a check back every Monday for the segment with Tim, Tim, always a pleasure to talk to you guys next week. Hey, before we, before we went on the time today, I do want to talk about cannabis stocks briefly. I want to pull up a chart here of the MSOE. Cannabis ETF. Um, and I just want to show you the volume.
They're really rant ran. They really went. I just want to show you the volume, uh, chat. Does anybody happen to remember what happened to cannabis stocks as a whole around November 8th? You can see the volume there on my, on my chart, it just exploded. This is the us cannabis. Um, ETU is cannabis stocks, ETF, right?
Um, from, from advisory shares. Does anyone in the chat remember what happened to cannabis stocks to us, cannabis stocks, specifically around November rates, something something happened and that it prompted this volume increase? No, not a Republican deal. Um, I was the catalyst. The catalyst was Joey EASI, JP Morgan, JP Morgan.
Starting November 8th, we are not going to let our prime broker clients buy us cannabis securities. That's what that was. Then chat's all over legalization thing. On top of that, you have the Republicans, the Republicans of all people hijacking cannabis as their issue. Oh, screw the Democrats. We're going to drop our own bill to legalize cannabis.
Boom. On top of that, you get earnings from last week and there we don't care about whether the good or bad we just care that they're over with. So you've got ER, or past earnings we've got, um, underlying demand because people who literally want to buy us cannabis, stocks can only buy this one thing. This one security MSLs, you've got the Republicans doing their thing to legalize cannabis.
And what is this? Come down to a perfect storm here and for a cannabis stocks and not to mention they were massively oversold. Like we looked at cannabis a week ago and saying it's sleepy and they were oversold. I think it was maybe like, I can't remember what day, but I can remember looking, you know, until Ray and CGC and saying, while you're down here and they've stopped going down for a few days and they're massively oversold, so you could get a bit of a squeeze and that's exactly what's occurring here and all of these stocks now, again, you're in stocks.
Typically selling the rip works very well. And so, you know where this party ends. I don't know, but am I coming in, in a canopy growth and buying it now at $15 and 68 cents when it was $11 last week? Hell no, you know, that's a 40% move. Could it go to 16? Could it go to 18? We don't never know where the top is going to be, but you have, you have an overhead supply issue just as we were talking with Tim, with that being said, these docs are massively oversold.
So if you get a dip, then maybe you start to think about getting back in from a long-term scale. They're massively oversold on a very short-term scale, actually overbought now. So you want to dip to give back if you, if you're a believer in the pot story, I'm not, but if you are, you want a dip to get back in these things.
I wouldn't be chasing them. And crypto morning shows. Yes. Also there's the tax laws harvesting. Yeah, exactly. I was thinking thoroughly. I know some people start early too. I mean, it all depends. You got to have a hard time finding losers in your portfolio. Uh, I'm just saying we haven't had 16 bucks yet.
Got pre-mark and I comes in at 1590. Uh, there's a pair of highs right in that area. 16, right. 15 92, 15 99. So I don't know. It's there's two eyes in the same area, but just looking at the monthly. I mean, if you're in this like that is you, you said I'm not coming in here and buying it in 1571. If you're reeling the risk down to the low of the movie, you're going to think you're going to get 10, 20 points off.
I don't think you're getting 10, 20 points out. If I thought it was 10, 20 points, I would buy it at 1570. I think there's a couple points possible. And I see, you know, I don't know when it's going to pull the rug out from under it, because they seem to always pull the rug out from under it on these cannabis stocks.
So the story, the story has been cold for a while. It gets hot for a few days and then all of a sudden it goes ice cold again. So I honestly think it's a rally to be sold this one with the basic, I try to keep my. Stocks and uptrends buying depths stocks down trends. I'm selling reps. This is a stock and a clear downtrend.
You, you have a 50% or 40% rally and CGC in a week. That is a rip to be sold. And I would agree with you for the Canadian name CGC, Tilray that? Well, let's look at the problem that most of us names aren't even, you know, GRW G hasn't even started going. I know it looks better. I know. And I'm talking about M S O S for certain people, certain institutions that want to buy us cannabis stocks and they bang through JP Morgan.
They can't, they literally can't JP Morgan said, we're not going to let you, but there is an alternative. That's why there is like literally hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into SOS and the last. Last week or so, because there's no alternative. So MSOE is decisions for JP Morgan clients though, these things snow, but they scroll ball is my point.
So we're up tore up from 25, up to 32 and 33 now in the last week and a half. So yeah, so I will take the point again and say I'm SOS and a clear downtrend. This is a nice, huge rep. We're talking about three you're right? To your point, Spencer for seven points on $26 talk, 30% rally in a week and a half.
That is the definition of a rep. I would sell it. Okay, fine. Sorry. I, I, I'm not a fan, I think. And you guys know I'm bullish and I, and, and I think that, all right, I think I'll take the other side of that for the rest of I'll do a lunch prep for it. So am I SOS 33 with 33 right now? I will say. And you've got the momentum going with you.
That's the one thing you do have going with you. So I want to go out for like a buck 38 38 versus a 27. I'll do that with you. I don't know. 33 20. So it's a 33. Yeah. Five up five down. So they're 33, 28 versus 38, basically five. I'm looking at finance clothes. No, no, no, no. 20 versus 38 forever. So 30 whatever head first.
So 38 I'm taking 28. You're taking 38. I'll take that. All right. We got to lunch, but if I lose Joel OZO lunch,
I can't come to the country. I got to come down there. I'm going to come see you guys. All right. I'm writing this down, write this down your rights. And you know what? I never write them down. So I forget I made the bats guys get me, but I don't remember it like two days. So now that I made this bat, let me know when I lose.
Right. Okay. Here. Oh my gosh. We, we ran out of time. Let's just do one from the chat. Let's do Shopify. Somebody asked about Shopify move a half hour ago. This stock has just been on absolute fire. That candle on Friday. Holy mackerel. This is your tech play in Canada. This is like it's like Nortel was in 1999 for Canada, Shopify as the tech stock of cannon.
And, you know, obviously that's, you know, new all time highs and stocks and making new all-time highs. You do not want to be short them. I would be a buyer of pullbacks in Shopify. Valuation is terrible, it's high, but it doesn't matter when the story is hot. So we don't even consider valuation at this time.
How do you know the story is hot stocks, like in a new all time? The story is hot. So I would be a buyer of pullbacks and shop, find my chasing it up 175 points. No, but if you get a 50% retracement, which I love that 50%, retracements, you know, stocks going away, waves, waves, waves, you're buying, you know, a stock clear uptrend gets you the depth.
If it gives you a dip, a nine points is not much of a dip, but, you know, could there continue to go? I wouldn't want to be sure that don't short stocks make new all-time highs. Wow. Wow. This is a tough one. Uh, I mean, I'll say like minor, like one star resistance. It flows at 16 69 52 and then maybe a one and a half star that, uh, 64, 16, 74, 79.
So six times volume, uh, of third of fried on Friday from the. So that, uh, oh no, I was going to get like super bullets on this one because when it had this big green candle, it had two more like this, you know, two pretty good days, but this is like, you're, you're going into like new all-time highs here. So you might see a little profit taking, but you got two levels of many upside 69, 52 and 74 79.
And got a little buyer here at 1660. I don't know if that's, uh, you know, gonna hold up 21,000 shares of traded. So, all right. It is 9 0 1, got a single bond. Uh, Joel have two dentists and hello to live trading with Benzinga, which will start in a couple of minutes here. After I wrap up today's show. As always, please remember all the information from our show is meant to be used as informational purposes and not for investing or trading advice.
Thanks to our guest, Tim Quast reminder, market structure, ed.com Lincoln description Lincoln was in the, on the screen before it's literally just market structure, edge.com. Uh, Benzing approach. Check that out. If you haven't already, you can get a free two week trial, go to pro.benzinga.com. Uh, last thing I want to plug for the day before I forget, um, is our next Benzinga bootcamp is this Saturday.
If you don't know what I'm talking about, I'm going to put the link in chat right now. You can go to Benzinga bootcamp.com to learn more. It is a, oh, where's my chat. There it is. It is a full day event. Nine to five. We're having let's see, who's speaking. Uh, Jake, who Jasick from Trendspotter we've got Anne Marie banned.
Samantha Luddu Chris Capri, mark Patrina. We've got a full day of education on trading technical. This Saturday nine to five Benzinga boot camp.com. Check that out. All right. It is 9 0 2. We're going to wrap this up, go over to live training with Benzinga myself, Mitch, Ryan, Florida, Junaid, and a, well, hang out through the open.
That's what we'll do. So, uh, we'll see you guys over there and, uh, Did you know, nearly all stock price changes of 10% or more result from a single news headline. That's right. News headlines have a unique ability to drive stock prices up or down. These news catalysts create trading opportunities every day.
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