Foreign Policy Live Will the United States Attack Iran?
9 snips
Feb 9, 2026 
Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow and Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, joins to break down Tehran’s strategic posture. He weighs the likelihood of U.S. military action. He maps Iran’s missile and regional retaliation risks. He discusses succession, why the regime projects strength, and what might actually trigger its collapse.
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Military Action Is Likely But Not Immediate
- Karim Sadjadpour judges a U.S. military strike on Iran as likely but not imminent given Trump's history of gambles.
- He thinks Trump's perceived vindications raise the chance of force more than a diplomatic deal.
Iran's Regionalization Threat
- Iran threatens to 'regionalize' any war by using thousands of short-range ballistic missiles against Gulf targets.
- Sadjadpour warns those threats aim to deter U.S. or allied strikes by promising significant regional cost.
Diplomacy Hampered By Expertise Gap
- Sadjadpour is pessimistic about diplomacy because U.S. negotiators lack Iran expertise while Iran's team is experienced.
- He sees Iran negotiating from a position of confidence rather than desperation.
