School of War Ep 101: Iskander Rehman on Wars of Protraction
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Dec 5, 2023 Iskander Rehman, author and fellow at SAIS’s Kissinger Center, discusses how future wars may be more about endurance. Topics covered: limitations of quick victories, geography as predictor in wars, role of national leadership, Sino-US competition, and absorbing massive casualties.
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Protracted Wars Remain The Likely Norm
- Protracted great-power wars are likely despite modern precision strike and C4ISR because mutually damaging first salvos rarely end an opponent's will to fight.
- Rehman studied conflicts from the Punic Wars to Ukraine to show short decisive victories are the exception, not the norm.
Plan For Political And Societal Endurance Not Just Stocks
- Broaden planning beyond immediate munitions and supply worries to include strategy, politics, and societal endurance for protracted great-power war.
- Rehman urges mental adjustment: revive long-horizon thinking like Cold War-era planners to prepare whole-of-society responses.
Matched Battle Networks Encourage Attrition
- Both U.S. and Chinese doctrines emphasize rapid decisive campaigns, but matching sensor-strike networks mean mutual attrition can leave both battered and unresolved.
- After initial pulses, degraded communications and casualties create conditions that favor protraction.