A post-OBBB market recalibration

27 snips

Jul 25, 2025

In a thought-provoking discussion, Costa Samaras, Director of the Scott Institute for Energy Innovation and former White House climate advisor, dives into the complexities of U.S. energy policy. He examines the paradox of needing rapid clean energy deployment while facing regulatory roadblocks. Topics include the contradictions in the GOP's energy agenda, the misaligned assumptions in DOE's blackout risk report, and visions for a 'Grid New Deal' that embraces innovation. Samaras also highlights the potential impacts of new tax regimes on the clean energy sector.

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INSIGHT

Projected Consequences of OBBB

Analyses predict a 57-62% drop in clean energy capacity additions by 2025 due to policy changes.
This results in higher household costs, fewer jobs, increased emissions, and slowed EV adoption.

INSIGHT

Tax Credit Landscape Post-IRA

The Inflation Reduction Act introduced a broad set of technology tax credits propelling clean energy.
The new administration partly rolls back these credits, especially for solar and wind, while retaining some incentives.

INSIGHT

Risks from Foreign Entity Restrictions

Foreign Entities of Concern (FIOC) rules impose strict new sourcing and ownership restrictions on clean energy projects.
This heightens uncertainty and adds a veto point that could stall projects and investments.

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As America faces a surge in electricity demand, the federal government is working hard to slow the very resources needed to meet it.

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” is expected to slash clean energy deployment by as much as 60% over the next decade — bringing back hard tax credit sunsets, introducing tight construction deadlines, and imposing strict foreign entity restrictions.

Meanwhile, a DOE reliability report warns of a 100-fold increase in blackout risk in high-renewables scenarios. And a new permitting order now puts decisions on fencing, road construction, and land grading under the direct authority of the Interior Secretary.

It’s a moment of cognitive dissonance in Washington, as policymakers talk about building energy faster, while quietly dismantling the tools to do so.

In this episode of Open Circuit, we’re joined by Costa Samaras, director of the Scott Institute for Energy Innovation at Carnegie Mellon and former White House climate and energy advisor, to make sense of the moment.

We unpack the contradictions at the heart of the GOP’s energy agenda, explain why the post-IRA tax landscape is still favorable for some sectors, and explore how the politics of permitting could shape developer decisions for years to come.

Later in the episode, we dive into the DOE's blackout modeling, and explain why the report’s assumptions are so misaligned with the on-the-ground reality.

Finally, Costa lays out his vision for a Grid New Deal, explaining why AI fast lanes, public investment, and smarter grid interconnection rules are essential to meeting this demand surge with clean energy.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Sungrow, the trusted provider of PV inverters and battery storage. With over 605 GW installed worldwide and a BloombergNEF ranking of “most bankable” in power conversion and energy storage, Sungrow provides solar tech you can count on. Learn more at sungrowpower.com.

Learn more about 38 North Solutions’ Policy Pulse, providing highly curated, actionable snapshots of the political developments shaping the clean tech landscape.

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.