The Daily Brief The oil markets are in a weird place right now
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Sep 16, 2025 The podcast dives into the peculiar state of oil markets, highlighting job cuts and a slowdown in shale drilling. It explores how these changes are affecting major oil companies and the geopolitical ramifications for countries like Russia. The discussion then shifts to the influence of overproduction and OPEC Plus interventions on global trade. Additionally, the evolving role of currencies, especially the dollar and rising renminbi, is examined, alongside how geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade dynamics and invoicing practices.
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Today's Cuts Could Cause Tomorrow's Crunch
- The industry's cost-cutting now reduces future investment, creating conditions for a later supply crunch.
- Past crashes show that deep spending cuts often set the stage for sharp rebounds and higher prices later.
Is This Time Really Different?
- Structural demand shifts (EVs, renewables) matter, but change is gradual and mixed across sectors.
- If demand doesn't collapse as fast as forecasts say, a supply squeeze could re-emerge by 2027.
Dollar Still Rules Trade Invoicing
- The US dollar remains dominant: nearly half of global trade is invoiced in dollars despite the US not matching that export share.
- The euro sits second at ~23%, largely confined to intra-European invoicing.