Iran: The Latest Why Iran's new supreme leader could intensify the war
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Mar 9, 2026 Sascha Bruchmann, IISS research fellow on defence and Gulf security, provides expert analysis. He discusses Gulf states facing drone and missile attacks. He unpacks regional air defences, interceptor stock concerns and the strategic logic behind strikes on oil and desalination infrastructure. He also outlines risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and how neighbouring countries are reacting.
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Mojtaba Was An IRGC-Backed Insider
- Mojtaba Khamenei was the IRGC's preferred successor after years embedded in his father's office and building control over the Basij militia.
- Roland Oliphant traces his rise from a marginal 1987 figure to a power broker alleged to have helped manipulate the 2009 election and place loyalists across security services.
Succession Could Make The IRGC The Real Ruler
- If Mojtaba becomes leader, power may shift so the IRGC effectively runs the state while the Supreme Leader is a placeman rather than an indispensable arbiter.
- Roland warns Mojtaba is embedded with security services but might lack his father's unquestioned authority, producing a military-dominated regime.
Nuclear Decision Hinges On Mojtaba's Temperament
- Ali Khamenei's personal caution kept Iran from taking the final step to build a nuclear weapon despite IRGC pressure.
- Roland notes the key unknown is whether Mojtaba is equally cautious or will pursue a decisive push toward weaponisation after the attacks on his family.