The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens Wide Boundary News 2/23/26: Biodiversity Depletion, Iran & the Strait of Hormuz, and the Green Wedge
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Feb 23, 2026 A wide-boundary look at renewable energy gains that hide rising costs and deindustrialization. An analysis of China’s flat CO2 numbers masking construction collapse and coal highs. A discussion of biodiversity loss as ecosystems lose adaptability. A rundown of nuclear treaty lapse and rising nuclear escalation risk, plus the strategic stakes around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
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EU Renewable Share Masks Industrial Decline
- Wind and solar overtaking fossil electricity in the EU hides an eroding industrial denominator.
- Germany's renewables plus nuclear shutdowns, gas loss, and high surcharges raised industrial power costs and triggered factory closures and job loss.
Flat Emissions Can Hide Economic Contraction
- China's flat CO2 in 2025 came from demand collapse, not clean substitution.
- Record coal production and new coal capacity rose while cement and construction output plunged during a real estate crisis.
Three National Energy Pricing Models
- Nations follow different pricing models that shape competitiveness and long-term decisions.
- Model 1 ignores externalities, Model 2 adds a green wedge, Model 3 adds green plus depletion taxes, making short-term competitiveness harder.