Arab Digest podcasts Iran and regime survival
10 snips
Mar 18, 2026 
Sanam Vakil, director of MENA at Chatham House and Iran analyst, outlines Tehran's survival strategy and why hard blows may not topple its command. She discusses targeted assassinations, an attrition approach likened to Vietnam, missed diplomatic off-ramps, Gulf states' limited leverage, regional fallout in Iraq, and why assumptions of imminent collapse are optimistic.
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Survival Equals Victory For Iran
- Iran cannot win conventionally but views survival as a strategic victory.
- Sanam Vakil explains Tehran's aim is to outlast superior forces and secure sanctions relief and guarantees against future strikes.
Assassinations Won't Break Unity Immediately
- Targeted assassinations may unearth untested leaders but the regime currently remains unified.
- Vakil warns unknown figures will emerge and fragmentation, if any, is likeliest after the war rather than during it.
Iran Aspires To A War Of Attrition
- Iran is using asymmetric tactics to create a war of attrition similar to Vietnam.
- Vakil says drone and dispersed attacks spread costs horizontally to wear down the stronger adversary over time.