Saxo Market Call It's all pivotal, whether US market sentiment, USD, JPY or geopolitics
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Feb 19, 2026 A compact market roundup on the US equity rally and whether AI winners have run too far. Technical pivot points for major indices and critical FX moves for USD and JPY are highlighted. Discussion of earnings-driven volatility, private credit strains, and the unusual flows around OpenAI and Tesla options. Rising geopolitical tension with Iran and its potential to jolt markets is flagged as a key risk.
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Hidden Market Divergences
- U.S. equity internals show calm index levels but huge divergences beneath the surface between AI winners and losers.
- John Hardy warns a regime shift could trigger broad selling or a rotation into beaten-down names.
Trade Using Clear Technical Lines
- Monitor key technical levels like the NASDAQ 100 low ~24,387 and S&P range lows for confirmation before trading.
- Use those lines as entry or stop cues because a breach could signal a broad regime change, Hardy suggests.
Earnings Spark Wild Individual Moves
- John recounts extreme earnings reactions in individual names like a 14% pop and Carvana plunging over 20% after results.
- He uses these examples to illustrate how single-stock volatility contrasts with stable headline indices.