ChinaTalk How will Beijing Respond to the War in Ukraine?
Apr 1, 2022
Bonny Lin, Director of the China Power Project at CSIS and an expert in Chinese foreign policy, dives into Beijing's response to the Ukraine war. She discusses the PLA's possible adaptations based on lessons learned and how U.S. intelligence comparisons might shift China's military strategies regarding Taiwan. The conversation also delves into China's careful balancing act with Russia, examining future implications for national security and the geopolitical landscape. Lin highlights the challenges in analyzing defense policy amidst such complex international dynamics.
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Preparing the Chinese Public
- The Russian invasion has caused domestic pushback, highlighting the need for China to prepare its population for a Taiwan invasion.
- Messaging should emphasize the necessity of enduring economic costs for unification.
PLA's Response to Russian Struggles
- The PLA should analyze Russian military struggles to reassess their own capabilities and Taiwan's resistance.
- Concerns arise that PLA might double down on investments to address perceived weaknesses.
Xi's Interpretation
- Xi Jinping needs to personally internalize the lessons from Russia's military performance.
- The PLA has a history of adapting after observing wars, making their response crucial.