Why Europe Must Prepare to Go It Alone | Carlo Masala

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Jan 26, 2026

Carlo Masala, professor of international politics and author of If Russia Wins, outlines a chilling Narva test-case for NATO. He discusses how limited incursions, hybrid tactics, and political distraction could probe European resolve. The conversation then shifts to Europe's rearmament challenges, declining American commitment, and the broader identity crisis facing Western democracies.

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ADVICE

Prepare For Political Tests, Not Just Warfighting

Do not assume NATO's superior size prevents political exploitation of its seams.
Prepare for political tests and strengthen collective will, not just conventional capabilities.

INSIGHT

Limited Incursions As A Test

Russia can erode NATO politically by staging limited incursions rather than full-scale invasions.
Small territorial grabs test Article 5 and can delegitimize the alliance if members refuse collective response.

INSIGHT

Charm Offensive Can Mask Continuity

A negotiated, seemingly conciliatory Russian leadership could lull Europe into pausing rearmament efforts.
That pause creates the political opening Moscow needs to resume neo‑imperial aims without strong deterrence.

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In Episode 460 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Professor of International Politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich, Carlo Masala, whose book "If Russia Wins," makes the case for European national rearmament and the urgent need to deter near-term Russian threats against NATO member countries in the absence of American leadership.

Masala and Kofinas spend the first hour of their conversation detailing the scenario Calro puts forward in his book—a limited Russian incursion into the Estonian city of Narva. They explore why Carlo thinks that Russia might attempt such an operation, the similarities to and differences from the approach Russia took in Ukraine in 2014, whether NATO's Article 5 commitment would hold in such a scenario, and whether the gradual erosion and eventual destruction of the NATO alliance is the ultimate goal of the Russian Federation, irrespective of who is in office.

The second hour is devoted to a conversation about:

Europe's defense challenges in the face of a declining American commitment to NATO
The material and financial constraints European nations face in strengthening their deterrence
The advantages and disadvantages of Russia's conventional and unconventional forces
The deeper crisis of identity and purpose afflicting Western democracies.

They discuss the immigration debate, culture wars, the failure of democratic leadership in the context of European politics, and what ordinary citizens can do to defend democratic systems in the face of threats, both external and internal.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 01/22/2026