Escalations show off-ramp options fade

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news escalation in the Middle East is rising as the US is increasingly desperate to extract itself. Through all this it is adding more troops as Iran widens its attacks. It looks grim.

But first up today we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered slightly lower prices across the four commodities offered, all down about -3% in USD, marginally less in NZD.

In the US, while everything else is in flux, there is widening concern about private credit 'cockroaches'. We first noted the issues with Blue Owl funds. But it seems many more of these opaque funds have severe valuation issues. Funds managed by some very big names have been limiting withdrawals and investors clamour to exit their exposure. A list of troublesome funds include those managed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone. There are others of course. Limiting or stopping redemptions on funds that have dodgy valuations is a terrible signal.

Staying in the US, the weekly ADP pulse data delivered little-change from the prior week, a minimal +10,000 job increase.

The Richmond Fed's regional factory survey reported an improvement in their region in March, built on better order levels, an easier ability to pass on price increases, and a lower cost pressure. Despite all that, things are still net-negative. However their services survey is no longer negative (although it isn't positive either).

In Canada, small business sentiment took a hit in March, but it is still net-positive

There were many early March PMIs out overnight and the one for the US was weaker with weakened output growth and sharply higher prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. This survey is now at an eleven month low.

In Europe, this same survey shows Eurozone output growth slowed as input cost inflation hits its highest level for over three years.

India is reporting higher inflation and lower growth. Japan is reporting a slowdown in March too. And Australia reported a sudden contraction, their first in 18 months. In all PMIs released so far, the factory sectors are seeing less negative impact than the services sectors, where the effects are more immediate.

Taiwan reported a more 'modest' (for them) increase in industrial production in February, up +18% from a year ago. They also said their retail sales jumped an outsized +7.7% in February from a year ago, ending a long run of modest improvements.

We should note that the sharp restriction on sulphur exports from the Middle East is really juicing up the price of this commodity essential for phosphate fertiliser production, competing with mining demand for the remaining limited supply. Sulphur prices are now +40% higher than at the start of 2026 and +27% higher than the pandemic peak which was the prior record high.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41%, up +7 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today up +US$38 from yesterday at US$4424/oz. Silver is actually up +50 USc at US$69.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$3 at just on US$92.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$104/bbl. And it will be no surprise to learn that jet fuel prices are leaping, globally.

The Kiwi dollar is softer against the USD from yesterday, down -30 bps at 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. We are down -40 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are -30 bps lower at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -30 bps at just on 61.9.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,569 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.5%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.