John Rubino – The Geopolitical Premium In Oil, Volatility In The Precious Metals Complex, and The Ongoing Commodities Super-Cycle

John Rubino, [Substack https://rubino.substack.com/ ], joins me for another wide-ranging and nuanced discussion around the geopolitical and macroeconomic catalysts and technical momentum factors that are leading to volatility in precious metals like silver, gold, and the related PM stocks; in addition to the oil price and energy stocks.  We also review initiatives from industry and governments around the world to secure domestic supplies of critical minerals like copper, uranium, and rare earths.

 

We start off reviewing the volatility and choppy precious metals markets, and how the PM stocks are not fully factoring in the higher metals prices into their current valuations, giving investors accumulating weakness in quality companies an edge. He contrasts the shorter-term weakness from distracted markets processing the overwhelming in the news cycle, against the longer-term positive ongoing tailwind catalysts for the precious metals; arising from central bank buying of gold, concerns about the growing national debt, and the desire to cut interest rates and run the economy hot to try and grow the US out of the economic challenges it faces, which will end up being even more inflationary.

 

We review that many royalty companies,like Triple Flag PMs and OR Royalties, and PM producers, like Newmont, are actually not growing production year over year, but they are still being bailed out by the higher metals prices lifting their margins and cash flows even higher.  While some market observers may get fixated on that, John points out that their growing piles of cash on the balance sheet will eventually be used for merger & acquisitions deals to source more ounces in the ground or production from smaller companies in the year to come.

 

Next we pivot over to the extreme surge higher in oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, and what this means for mining company margins, a tax to consumers and businesses at the gas pump, and how it will tie into higher inflation for the governments and central banks to try and address with few good policy tool options. John also brings up how those fiscal and monetary policies will affect global currencies and interest rates; which should remain longer-term bullish factors for the precious metals.  

 

We discuss the unfolding broader commodities supercycle with copper and critical minerals deposits being of high interest to the US government and nations around the world ins sourcing supplies outside of China.  

• The discussion is also taking place about the government setting pricing floors in many critical minerals to encourage development of domestic mineral deposits or with trading partners, getting around the artificially low prices set by China.
• We also discuss the large capex spends from tech and AI companies and how commodity intensive that physical buildout will be in combination with the energy needs.
• John stresses the importance of investors continuing to get educated on the specific uses and demand factors in some of the more niche’ critical minerals and energy metals. This knowledge will allow investors to better understand the individual companies they are investing in, and which ones may be of interest by the governments or larger producers for supporting the new development and processing of critical minerals.

 

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.