Daily Politics from the New Statesman Does Trump have an endgame in Iran?
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Mar 1, 2026 
Fiona Hill, former senior U.S. presidential advisor and foreign policy expert, offers sharp analysis on recent Iran strikes. She explores why the action was timed now and whether it reflects a neocon resurgence or a chaotic power play. She maps immediate regional fallout, risks of asymmetric retaliation, Turkey and NATO implications, and how China and Russia might respond.
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Strike Was A Calculated Window Not Strategy
- Fiona Hill argues the Iran strike is a war of choice mirroring Iraq: performative, risky, and lacking a public justificatory paper.
- She says Trump seized a perceived window while Iran was weakened and followed Israel's lead, creating high uncertainty.
Not Neocon Revival But Same Force Logic
- Hill rejects labeling this a neocon resurgence but sees similar patterns: belief US military power can reshape states without coherent ideological framework.
- She links Trump's actions to personalized power and a desire for visible big-force displays rather than doctrine.
Plans May Exist But Key Pieces Are Missing
- Hill warns a surface-level plan may exist (citing Bolton-like visions) but critical pieces and reliable local partners may be missing.
- She stresses that even with planning, military interventions rarely go according to script.