ChinaTalk The Stalemate Summit: Xi-Trump in the Long Sweep of US-China Relations
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May 12, 2026 
Matt Sheehan, an analyst on energy and tech policy with AI and Chinese tech governance expertise, and Julian Gewirtz, a historian and former US China official at Columbia, unpack the Xi-Trump stalemate summit. They trace historical echoes, debate Taiwan pressure and brinkmanship, weigh Iran’s effects on China, and explore AI safety, governance, and technical cooperation.
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The Summit Is A Stalemate Not A Breakthrough
- The summit is a "stalemate summit": a lull in a prolonged competition, not a strategic resolution.
- Gewirtz says Xi wants stability to buy time to strengthen China while seeking concessions; Trump wants a public win amid global crises.
McCartney Kowtow Story Explains Summit Optics
- Julian recounts the 1793 Macartney mission optics: kowtow disputes and status cartoons shaped British views of China.
- He links those status rituals to modern summit visuals like handshake positions and walking order with Trump and Xi.
China Will Use Gradual Pressure On Taiwan Not Sudden Demands
- Taiwan is a core bargaining chip Beijing will press incrementally rather than demand instant reversal.
- Gewirtz warns China aims to change dynamics via "salami slicing" and target Taiwanese public morale ahead of elections.