Wall Street Breakfast Jobs beat shifts Fed cut timeline
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Feb 11, 2026 January payrolls far exceeded forecasts, shifting Fed cut odds later into the year. Markets reacted with rising yields, stock rallies, and Bitcoin staying under $70k. Kraft Heinz paused a divestiture to reallocate $600M to marketing and R&D. Unity plunged after a weak outlook while Shopify showed strong revenue growth. Analysts flagged frothy asset levels to watch.
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Jobs Surprise Shifts Fed Timing
- January nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside with 130,000 jobs, signaling resilience in the labor market.
- The surprise pushed expected Fed rate cuts later, moving the fully priced June cut to July and reducing odds of a third cut sharply.
Three-Month Trend Suggests Recovery
- Economists see a three-month trend hinting at a labor market recovery as firms adjust to uncertainty and protect margins.
- Market reaction was clear: stocks rose, yields climbed, and Bitcoin lagged the risk-on move.
Pause Divestiture, Invest In Operations
- Kraft Heinz paused its separation plan to focus resources on returning to profitable growth instead of pursuing a divestiture now.
- The company will invest $600 million in marketing, R&D, and pricing to support the operating plan this year.