All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions

Ep2 "How the NBA Builds Teams" with Billy King

Feb 22, 2022
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INSIGHT

Stats Mislead Without Context

  • Field-goal percentage misleads because defenses and context change a player's raw numbers.
  • Measure a player's impact by team baskets scored while they're on the court to capture interactive effects.
INSIGHT

Decisions Trigger Predictable Reactions

  • Decisions change others' behavior so 'all else equal' rarely holds.
  • Many 'unintended consequences' are predictable if you model competitors' and teammates' responses.
ADVICE

Evaluate Players By Team Contribution

  • Use team-level metrics like total team baskets when a player is on court to evaluate contribution.
  • Recognize such metrics still require accounting for how managers change lineups in response.
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