The Journal. Iran Thinks It’s Winning the War
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Mar 24, 2026 
Yaroslav Trofimov, The Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, maps out how Iran sees the conflict tilting its way. He digs into the Strait of Hormuz as an economic weapon. The conversation tracks oil shocks, pressure on Washington, rising Revolutionary Guard power, and why any effort to reopen the waterway could become costly and dangerous.
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Iran Sees The Strait As Its Real Victory
- Iran thinks it is winning because control of the Strait of Hormuz gives it leverage over oil prices and the war’s timeline.
- Yaroslav Trofimov says Tehran wants to turn an international waterway into a permanent tollbooth that finances the regime after the war.
The Revolutionary Guard Now Appears To Run Iran
- After the supreme leader’s death, real power appears to have shifted to the Revolutionary Guard rather than Iran’s formal civilian institutions.
- Trofimov says the IRGC spent decades preparing for war with the U.S. and Israel and now sees the strait as a core battlefield.
Why Iran Only Now Turned Hormuz Into A Weapon
- Iran avoided weaponizing Hormuz for years because proxy warfare let it pressure enemies without bringing bombardment onto Iranian soil.
- Once war reached Iran directly, Trofimov says the regime shifted into survival mode and used the strait as its strongest remaining leverage.