What Next | Daily News and Analysis The Iran War Hits Your Pocket
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Mar 26, 2026 
Justin Wolfers, economist and Michigan professor known for applied macro analysis. He breaks down why turmoil around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz rattles markets. He explains which industries and households will feel the shock. He lays out policy options and how long recovery could take.
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Markets Reveal Loss Of Trust In War Messaging
- Markets reacted more to conflicting statements than to events, showing distrust in official war messaging.
- Justin Wolfers contrasted U.S. and Iranian claims: stocks rose on Trump's negotiating claim and fell when Iran denied it, revealing credibility loss.
Markets Lean On Independent Signals Over Presidential Claims
- Markets prefer credible third-party confirmation over solitary presidential claims during conflicts.
- Wolfers showed stocks rose when Trump said talks were happening and fell when Iran denied them, signalling markets trust independent signals more.
Modern Oil Shocks Redistribute Rather Than Shrink Income
- The U.S. economy is less oil-dependent now than in the 1970s, so an oil shock redistributes income rather than instantly making the country poorer.
- Wolfers explained consumers pay more at pump while domestic producers gain, so national income can stay similar but unevenly distributed.