The Bunker – News without the nonsense Brave new world – Is 2026 our last chance?
Nov 18, 2025
Tom Standage, Deputy Editor of The Economist and historian, dives into the forecasts for 2026. He discusses the impending challenges rich countries face from economic excess and the looming AI bubble burst. The blurred lines of hybrid warfare raise concerns, as does Europe's struggle with defense and political stability. Meanwhile, China's rise through strategic trade deals is reshaping global power dynamics. Standage also touches on the climate outlook, emphasizing the peak of emissions and potential clean-tech solutions. A thought-provoking analysis!
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Geopolitics: Cold War Or Spheres Of Influence?
- The old rules-based world order is fracturing and Washington lacks a consistent China policy under Trump.
- Standage frames the choice as either a new Cold War or a return to spheres of influence but notes uncertainty about Trump's long-term stance.
War And Peace Are Blurring
- The line between war and peace is blurring with grey-zone tactics across sea, space and cyberspace.
- Standage cites cable cutting, GPS jamming and orbital weapons as examples of hybrid conflict becoming commonplace.
Europe Caught Between Growth And Defence
- Europe faces low growth while needing to boost defence spending and keep transatlantic ties.
- Standage warns Europe cannot easily pursue growth, rearmament and free-trade advocacy simultaneously.