The Property Couch 590 | Property Shock: War, Rates & Tax Reforms, Reshapes Everything! - Chat with Nerida Conisbee
Mar 26, 2026
Evan Lucas, a behavioural economist offering economic and investor insights, and Nerida Conisbee, Ray White chief economist with deep Australian housing expertise, unpack a perfect storm: war-driven supply shocks, rising inflation and rates, and looming tax reform. They discuss construction cost pressures, regional buyer shifts, investor behavior, and how potential CGT and negative gearing changes could reshape housing dynamics.
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Middle East Conflict Feels Like A New Supply Shock
- The Middle East conflict is producing a COVID-style global supply shock across energy, fertiliser and manufactured inputs, which will take months to filter into goods.
- Evan Lucas compared shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing from ~700–800 to only a handful daily, creating cascading shortages and price pressure.
Farmer's Diesel Shortage Shows Supply Fragility
- Ben shared a farmer story: a large Western Australian grain farmer needed 150,000 litres of diesel to sow and local supplies were short at 38,000 litres.
- The timing of sowing matters for yields, and diesel shortages illustrate how energy supply issues immediately hit agriculture and timing-sensitive production.
Rising Build Costs Will Push Replacement Prices Up
- Construction costs were re-accelerating after pandemic calm and the Middle East shock threatens renewed cost inflation, raising replacement costs and worsening affordability.
- Nerida highlighted labour shortages in smaller cities plus material surcharges (diesel-driven) that feed into CPI later in the year.
