The Intelligence from The Economist Strait of shock: Iran economic fallout
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Mar 11, 2026 
Andrew Miller, cultural commentator and film narrator, introduces Jafar Panahi’s latest work. Noah Sneider, East Asia bureau chief, explores Japan’s post-Fukushima nuclear restart and its energy choices. Rachana Shanbhogue, business and finance editor, examines oil market shocks, strategic reserve options and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple vibrant stories tied to geopolitics, energy and cinema.
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Use Strategic Reserves Only For Temporary Relief
- Release strategic oil reserves to offer temporary relief and increase market supply.
- Rachana warns IEA members hold about 1.2bn barrels but geological and policy constraints (US minimum cavern levels) limit rapid large releases.
Naval Escorts Are Limited And Potentially Risky
- Naval escorts can mitigate risk but face practical limits and escalation dangers that reduce effectiveness.
- Rachana compares 1980s convoy speeds and notes current backlog means years to clear traffic and escorts could be 'sitting ducks'.
Russian Oil Waivers Ease Prices But Undermine Sanctions
- Allowing purchases of sanctioned Russian oil eases market tightness but undermines Western pressure on Moscow.
- Rachana explains a US waiver for Indian purchases eases supply but trades off Ukraine policy goals and can't fully replace Gulf flows.