Odd Lots Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran
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Mar 20, 2026 
Gregory Brew, a Eurasia Group analyst focused on Iran and energy, breaks down why the war is lasting longer than expected. He explores damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, the threat around the Strait of Hormuz, and why Washington may be stuck in a strategic trap. The conversation also looks at shaky victory goals, Gulf allies’ fears, and oil market fallout.
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The Missing U.S. Endgame After Decapitation Failed
- Gregory Brew says the administration may have entered the war expecting a Venezuela-style political shift after killing Ali Khamenei.
- That option vanished when likely replacement figures also died, leaving no clear victory condition beyond temporary military degradation.
Why Broad Discontent Does Not Mean Easy Regime Change
- Gregory Brew says many Iranians oppose the Islamic Republic, but that does not mean regime decapitation automatically yields a pro-Western transition.
- A loyal 10 to 20 percent base, no organized opposition, and armed institutions like the IRGC keep the state intact.
Hormuz Became The Core Of The Strategic Trap
- Gregory Brew says reopening Hormuz is central to any U.S. off-ramp, but Iran prepared for this fight for decades with geography and stockpiled missiles.
- A broader coalition might help, yet Trump's pressure on Europe pushed allies from support toward conditional cooperation only.
