From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano The Government Has Been WRONG About Inflation For Years
Feb 19, 2026
They argue government inflation stats have been misleading and point to private trackers that give faster signals. Prediction markets and new tools are presented as superior forecasting methods. A discussion covers the AI arms race, job disruption, and using AI to generate income. The show also explores Bitcoin’s market mood and growing institutional accumulation.
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Private Metrics Outpace Government CPI
- Truflation correlates 97% with CPI with a one-month lag and forecasts inflation earlier than government data.
- If accurate, it predicts CPI falling below the Fed's 2% target within months, implying earlier easing than markets expect.
Prediction Markets Beat Traditional Forecasts
- Cauchy (a prediction market) has outperformed Fed Funds Futures and economist surveys at forecasting Fed decisions and inflation.
- Market-based private tools are becoming more accurate and influential for macro forecasting.
Capital Follows Better Signals
- The private sector now competes with government data by building faster, more accurate alternatives like Truflation and Cauchy.
- Capital will follow the best signals, making private metrics increasingly important.