Bloomberg Businessweek Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - February 27th, 2026
4 snips
Feb 28, 2026 
Chris Rauser, Bloomberg Pursuits editor-at-large who covers lifestyle and menswear trends. Chris Miller, Tufts professor and author of Chip War, expert on semiconductors and geopolitics. Chris Beam, Businessweek writer who reported on prediction markets. They discuss prediction markets and regulation, semiconductor supply chains and AI-driven demand, and creative ways to spend or invest a bonus.
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Why Prediction Markets Beat Polls
- Prediction markets can outperform polls by aggregating money-backed beliefs about what others will do rather than stated opinions.
- Chris Beam notes they excel at big elections and top-of-ballot outcomes but weaken further down-ticket and in small markets.
Regulation Determines Market Seriousness
- Regulatory structure shapes market content: Kalshi runs under CFTC oversight in the U.S. while Polymarket often operates offshore and avoids that review.
- Chris Beam contrasts CFTC-approved serious markets with Polymarket's fringe overseas bets like aliens or religious returns.
Use Only Liquid Markets For Signal
- Prefer larger liquidity pools to reduce manipulation risk when using prediction markets for information.
- Beam warns tiny markets were skewed by academics betting, but multimillion-dollar presidential markets are harder to manipulate.
