Big Take Pro Betters Flock to Prediction Markets
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Feb 6, 2026 Justina Lee, a Bloomberg markets reporter who covers cross-asset markets and sports betting, and Rufus Peabody, a professional sports gambler with 15+ years placing large wagers, discuss prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. They talk about pros shifting bets to exchanges, how yes/no contracts and exchange models work, Wall Street traders entering sports, integrity and regulatory questions, and sportsbooks’ responses.
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How A Cold Call Launched A Betting Career
- Rufus Peabody described landing an internship after cold-calling a company that consulted for Vegas bookmakers.
- He used that role to analyze a betting scandal and earn the firm's trust, which led to a hire and NBA work.
Prediction Markets Function Like Exchanges
- Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let users buy contracts that pay $1 if an outcome occurs, with prices reflecting market demand.
- These exchanges act like stock markets where prices fluctuate and traders match each other, not a house taking the other side.
Different Business Models Change Incentives
- Traditional sportsbooks take the house side and aim for about a 10% margin on handle through customer churn and promotions.
- Prediction-market exchanges earn small per-contract fees and benefit from high trading volume instead of betting against customers.