Great Power Podcast What If America Can't Deter China?
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Feb 14, 2024 Iskander Rehman, a Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies at AFPC, delves into the intricate dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He examines the historical context of protracted warfare and its implications for current military strategies. The conversation emphasizes the critical need for America to adapt its defense strategies to counter a rising China, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea. Rehman also discusses the dangers of domestic polarization on national security and the importance of unity in facing great power challenges.
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Deterrence Can Fail Because Adversaries Choose To Act
- Threats sometimes fail because adversaries may not believe, understand, or fear them, or may be willing to act despite them.
- Michael Sobolik cites Keith Payne to show deterrence can break down when choices and motivations override fear.
First Salvoes Can Freeze Into Protracted Conflict
- Short, high-velocity wars are not guaranteed despite technological advances because both sides emphasize seizing initiative.
- Iskander Rehman argues mutual 'use it or lose it' pressures can lock the US and China into a prolonged, degraded campaign.
Long Wars End By Exhaustion Not Quick Victories
- Historically, protracted great power wars are common and end when one side collapses from exhaustion or internal unrest.
- Rehman cites examples like the Hundred Years' War and Iran-Iraq War to show long conflicts' durability.