Episode 001: Introducing the Thematic Edge

Mark Farrington of the Global Watchtower and I have kicked off our own podcast on the Themes driving markets. Mark was practicing thematic investing as a portfolio manager long before it became a “thing” and a thematic approach to analysis of the global political economy has been my modus operandi for a quarter century. Mark and I have been debating markets for over twenty years and thought we’d bring that debate into the public.

In this, our first episode we talk about the shifting sands of geopolitics in the wake of China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings, what it means for the global economy, for emerging markets, and for digital assets. We discuss the surprising and amazing insights into President Trump’s policies from the Bank of Japan, President Trump’s assault on the Federal Reserve and its meaning for markets, and put the recent yield curve steepening in context.

Here are some of the topics and questions we cover:

0:00 Introductions: who we are and why you should listen to the Thematic Edge Podcast.

3:30 Did Donald Trump really drive India into the arms of China and Russia?

14:59 Message and effects of China’s 80th Anniversary military parade.

17:29 Accepting a Russia-India relationship to help separate the former from China.

21:31 What does the Great Game of geopolitics mean for emerging markets?

23:19 Japan as the first “emerging market” and the myth of higher EM returns in a world without globalization.

26:24 2008 to 2012 as the high watermark for emerging market investing.

30:15 Emerging markets in the new world order: FDI, not portfolio, flow driven and the importance of navigating the Chinese versus American spheres amid Global bifurcation.

32:08 The opportunities that crypto and digital assets open for emerging markets, especially Africa.

36:03 Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino provides best description of the Trump policy agenda, its motives and its aims.

43:24 When breaking convention becomes necessary in national and international policy.

46:04 Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve and the need for reform.

51:21 Fed independence versus legitimate democratic oversight.

54:03 The propriety and effects of pursuing criminal and ethical investigations of central bankers.

55:16 Is Jerome Powell the worst Fed Chair in history?

57:04 The effects on the yield curve and swap spreads.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thematicmarkets.substack.com/subscribe