Fed Hike Next? Oil, Inflation and the Bond Market Warning

Mar 31, 2026

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In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris, Saied and Rajeil break down a market that feels more like a casino than a pricing mechanism, from Trump-driven headline volatility and bond market warning signs to rising oil risks, shaky Fed cut expectations, and why the stock market may be ignoring the bigger problem entirely. They dig into the growing disconnect between equities and Treasuries, the real inflation threat hiding in energy, the possibility that the Fed may be forced to hike instead of cut, and why housing, flipping, and rate-sensitive assets are all flashing caution signs. Along the way, they also go off on AI addiction, productivity pressure, geopolitical chaos, and the uncomfortable reality that in a world run by algorithms, hype, and revisions, staying “plugged in” is no longer optional. This one is part macro breakdown, part group therapy, and fully THS.

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🔗 Resources:

$3 Trillion SPX Swing in 56 Minutes (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Trump Postpones Iran Strikes 5 Days (WSJ via Apple News)

20-Year Treasury Briefly Crosses 5.00% (CNBC)

2-Year Note Auction: Bid-to-Cover 2.44 (Seeking Alpha)

Fed's Goolsbee: Could See Rate Hikes If Inflation Gets Out of Control (MarketWatch)

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