Lithium Supply Uncertainty, Analyst Misses, Inventory Trends | Ben Steinberg on DC Strategy

Nov 28, 2025

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In this Rock Stock Recap, Howard, Matt and Rodney dig into the state of the lithium market, energy storage demand, and the broader critical minerals landscape against a rapidly changing macro and geopolitical backdrop. They unpack why there is still no agreed historical lithium supply dataset, how a 20% spread in 2024 supply estimates can distort every long-term forecast, and why Chinese and China-controlled supply (especially in Africa) is likely being underestimated by many Western brokers. In the second part of the video, Howard speaks with Washington, DC lobbyist Ben Steinberg of Venn Strategies and the Battery Materials & Technology Coalition about how U.S. critical minerals and battery policy is evolving one year into the new administration.

Chapters

(00:00:00) Intro
(00:03:30) Lithium Data Inconsistencies
(00:05:55) Supply Models and Inventory Issues
(00:10:08) Supply Outlook to 2027
(00:10:50) China's Lithium Supply Impact
(00:11:30) Inventory Trends and Prices
(00:13:40) Analyst BESS Forecast Critiques
(00:18:27) Growth of Energy Storage
(00:20:40) Exxon and U.S. Brine Projects
(00:22:21) Rio Tinto's Lithium Strategy
(00:25:44) U.S.-China Relations
(00:31:54) Critical Minerals Market Outlook

(00:35:20) Interview with Ben Steinberg
(00:37:37) Clean Energy Policy Overview
(00:39:16) Understanding 45X Incentives
(00:40:34) Solar, Wind, and Battery Role
(00:42:22) Shifts in Federal Energy Leadership
(00:46:21) Pentagon Deal-Making and Leadership
(00:50:48) Battery Policy Silence on EVs
(00:52:43) DOE Reorganization and New Leadership
(00:55:22) Musk, Grid Capacity, and Policy
(00:58:20) Autonomy and Upcoming Legislation
(01:00:01) Tariffs, FDI, and Trade Strategy
(01:04:07) How Projects Get Federal Attention
(01:07:30) Vulcan Deal Context
(01:09:45) Nuclear Strategy and Minerals
(01:11:26) What's Coming in Year Two
(01:12:20) Closing Remarks

Also Discussed

The besties walk through Matt's latest supply models out to 2027, seasonality and inventories in China, and how lithium prices have been tracking inventory moves rather than trading "randomly." They critique recent analyst work from Goldman Sachs and Canaccord on EV and BESS (battery energy storage system) demand, highlighting why flatlining BESS growth after a couple of strong years looks unrealistic given grid needs, AI-driven power demand, and booming ESS build-outs.

They also touch on Exxon's Smackover lithium ambitions, slower-than-hyped timelines for U.S. brine and geothermal projects, and what Rio Tinto's likely focus on low-cost brine assets could mean for hard-rock projects in Quebec. The conversation broadens into U.S.-China relations, tariffs, rare earths, and why recent equity market weakness in critical minerals may be over-discounting a "kumbaya" scenario rather than the continued strategic competition that policy still implies.

In the second part of the video, Ben & Howard discuss the "one big beautiful bill," the role of the 45X production tax credit, DOE reorganization around critical minerals and batteries, the growing focus on energy and AI dominance, and how agencies like the Department of War, DOE, Commerce, EXIM and DFC are coordinating on mineral-by-mineral strategies and dealmaking.

Ben also explains the new emphasis on foreign direct investment from allies (Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Middle East) into U.S. critical mineral and processing projects, and what companies need in place—offtake, private capital, strategic partners—to be taken seriously in Washington.