#32 BlackRock CEO: Global Recession Looms if Iran War Continues

Larry Fink, is Chairman and CEO of BlackRock - the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing more than $14 trillion in investments on behalf of governments, pension funds and individual investors globally.

He tells BBC Business Editor Simon Jack that oil prices could remain above $100 a barrel for years — and rise to $150 — if the Iranian conflict is not resolved, a scenario he says would trigger a “stark and steep recession”. Higher energy costs would ripple through agriculture, fertiliser, and global supply chains, acting as a regressive tax that disproportionately affects the poorest.

Fink calls for “energy pragmatism”, arguing countries should use all available energy sources — from oil and gas to renewables and nuclear — to build resilience. He highlights Europe’s fragmented power systems as a structural weakness, particularly as energy demand rises with the expansion of AI infrastructure.

On trade, Fink says globalisation is being recalibrated rather than reversed. Post-war trading systems that favoured certain economies are shifting towards greater symmetry, though he acknowledges tariffs are inflationary.

He dismisses comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis, arguing the $2.2 trillion private credit market is transparent, with clearly defined liquidity limits.

Artificial intelligence, he says, will be transformational — driving demand for massive infrastructure investment while creating large numbers of skilled blue-collar jobs. Fink argues societies have overemphasised university education and must reassess the value of skilled trades in the AI economy.

Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Olie D'Albertanson & Ollie Smith

00:15 Will Bain and Simon Jack set out who BlackRock/Larry Fink is 03:30 Larry Fink joins the podcast - discuss oil price scenarios 12:04 Globalisation and tariff impact 19:07 Are we reliving the Financial Crisis of 2008? 22:53 AI Investment: Bubble or necessity? 30:28 The case for blue-collar careers 32:58 AI, demographics, and the future of taxation