Stray Reflections Good bubble, bad bubble
18 snips
Feb 13, 2026 A deep dive into how massive infrastructure deals and rising capex are reshaping AI buildout. Discussion of which investments endure versus which are transient wastes. Exploration of power, data centers, chip supply and the push to build fabs outside Taiwan. Thoughts on centralization risks, platform capex burdens, and the types of durable assets that could win in this cycle.
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AI As An Installation Boom
- The current AI cycle looks like an installation boom that reallocates capital into long-lived infrastructure and skills.
- Like the dot-com era, most firms will fail but the knowledge and infrastructure will persist and reshape the economy.
Power, Not Chips, Is The Bottleneck
- Power and data center capacity, not merely GPUs, are the binding constraints today according to hyperscalers.
- Firms now plan investments in power and shelf space with multi-decade lives, making physical capacity central to AI deployment.
Foundries Determine Bubble Scale
- TSMC is cautiously expanding while Intel struggles to rebuild its foundry credibility.
- The scale of the AI bubble depends on whether additional foundries close the lead, limiting runaway overcapacity.