Coal in 2026: The Energy Inflection Point (Matt Warder)

With coal stocks moving strongly of their lows of 2025 and the funding landscape being flipped on its head, we called upon the most knowledge person in the sector, Matt Warder, to give us the run down.In this conversation we covered:

• Who’s in the M&A hotseat

• Where met and thermal prices move

• How Matt’s constructing his portfolio

• Whether India is replacing Chinese demand

• The changes wrought by the royalties’ regimes

• How AI has changed the game for power generationFollow Matt Warder’s on:

• Substack - https://thecoaltrader.com/

• Twitter / X - https://x.com/mfwarder

Stocks mentioned: WHC, SMR, NHC, BHP, GLEN.L, BSL, RIO, BTU.NY, HCC.NY, AMR.NY, METC.N, AAL.L,

This was recorded on 3.2.2026.

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TIMESTAMPS  

(0:00) Intro
(0:40) 2026: Year of the Great Accumulation
(2:30) US Steel & BlueScope Takeover Battles
(5:00) Thermal Coal & AI Power Demand
(7:50) Energy Grid Constraints on AI Growth
(10:30) Indonesian Coal Export Quotas
(13:10) Indian Steel Demand & Market Dynamics
(20:00) China vs India Steel Production Models
(23:00) Cost Curve Evolution & Labor Inflation
(29:00) Long-Term Met Coal Price Forecasts
(30:30) Robots, AI & Fossil Fuel Paradox
(31:10) M&A Outlook: Anglo Assets & Consolidation
(33:30) Latimore's Illawarra Acquisition
(35:50) BHP BMA Divestment Potential
(37:50) US Dollar Impact on Australian Producers
(40:40) Coal Stock Valuations: Stanmore, Whitehaven, Yancoal
(43:30) ESG 4.0 & Cheaper Debt for Coal Companies
(44:40) Top Met Coal Stock Picks
(46:00) Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Strategy
(49:10) Trump Stockpile Announcement & Reuters Article
(50:40) Wrap Up

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