This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump says he wants to end the Iran war. Can he?
Mar 19, 2026
Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, offers expert analysis on Iran and regional security. She discusses the dynamics of the Iran conflict, limits of decapitation strategies, Gulf states' dilemmas, the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, and who might broker or benefit from a settlement. Short, sharp takes on the regional stakes and diplomatic constraints.
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Iran Seeks Survival Through Attrition
- Iran's clear strategic objective is regime survival, not conventional victory against the US and Israel.
- It pursues an attritional, endurance campaign to wear down opponents and export costs to economies and interceptors.
Gulf States Are Caught Between Risks
- Gulf states oppose the war yet are trapped between economic risk from Iran and security threats from an aggressive Israel.
- They provided Iran economic outlets under sanctions and fear a weak Iran could still destabilize the region.
Backchannels Probably Exist Even If Silent
- There are likely discreet diplomatic channels despite public silence, because the war's regional cost incentivizes backchannel talks.
- Oman and others previously mediated; live but quiet efforts probably aim to begin conversations toward terms.