Bulwark Takes Trump Says The Strait Is “Open.” So Why Isn’t Anyone Moving? (w/ Sal Mercogliano)
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Apr 9, 2026 
Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and former merchant mariner who runs a shipping analysis channel, breaks down why the Strait of Hormuz remains largely idle despite claims it is open. He discusses vessels rerouting through Iranian waters, Tehran’s de facto toll system, long recovery timelines for shipping capacity, and the humanitarian and economic toll on mariners and global trade.
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Provide Clear Security Guarantees Before Resumption
- Governments should provide clear, public security assurances before commercial shipping resumes at scale.
- Without firm guarantees many firms will wait; Sal says ships are only edging toward the strait, not resuming normal transit.
Strait Still Functionally Closed
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite official statements claiming it's open.
- Shipping traffic shows only measured movement, with many vessels avoiding the traditional center and hugging the Iranian coast or waiting to see if it's safe.
Iran Asserting Control Through A Toll Booth
- Iran is asserting de facto control by routing ships through a 'toll booth' inside its territorial waters.
- That control likely violates UNCLOS because the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait and not wholly Iranian territorial water.