Cheeky Pint Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
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Mar 17, 2026 
Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi co-founder and former MIT math and CS student, joins Tarek Mansour, Kalshi co-founder and CEO behind America’s first federally regulated prediction market. They get into suing the CFTC, explosive growth, election markets, AI traders, insider-trading lines, sports contract ethics, and a future where everything from GPUs to the Oscars gets a price.
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Why Kalshi Wants Sharps Instead Of Banning Them
- Kalshi wants sharps, unlike sportsbooks, because its business earns transaction fees instead of profiting when customers lose.
- Luana Lopes Lara said fee design rewards makers who stabilize markets and charges takers more, aligning incentives toward fairer, tighter books.
Kalshi Wants To Be The Derivatives Exchange For Everything
- Kalshi wants to become a full derivatives exchange by expanding across topics, market structures, margin systems, and liquidity.
- Luana Lopes Lara pointed to GPU compute, collectibles, futures, swaps, and options as the path from binary event bets toward broader institutional markets.
Which Industries Prediction Markets Could Disrupt
- Luana Lopes Lara thinks prediction markets will pressure polling, news, insurance, sportsbooks, and legacy futures by offering cheaper, incentive-aligned signals.
- Instead of replacing polls, markets may improve them because accurate pollsters can now profit directly from being right.