Switched On Deep Freeze Risk Raises Stakes for Europe’s Gas Supply
Oct 9, 2025
Jess Hicks, a meteorologist at BloombergNEF, forecasts severe winter weather patterns that could strain Europe's gas reserves, highlighting signals such as sudden stratospheric warming. Olympe Mattei-D’Ornano provides insights into the current gas storage levels and the anticipated influx of US LNG, which may lead to a volatile prices scenario. They discuss how this season's weather could limit renewable energy generation and affect future LNG supply strategies, painting a complex picture of Europe's energy landscape this winter.
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Guest's First Podcast Appearance
- Olympe described it as her first time on the podcast and expressed excitement about discussing winter gas outlooks.
- She emphasized that their winter and summer gas outlooks are among BNEF's most popular research products.
Climate Signals Raise Cold-Winter Odds
- Jess assigns ~70% odds of a harsh Northern Hemisphere winter based on three climate signals: La Niña, negative QBO, and low Barents-Kara sea ice.
- These signals increase the likelihood of sudden stratospheric warming and Arctic air outbreaks that raise gas demand.
Storage Refill Fell Short Due To Low Wind
- Europe aimed for 90% storage but stood around 80% recently, which is within allowed deviation and not critically low.
- Lower refill happened because last winter's low wind forced higher gas burns, denting summer replenishment.