Energy Evolution

Political pressure mounts on Europe's flagship carbon policy

Mar 31, 2026
Pedro Barata, EDF associate VP on carbon markets, offers a political-economy view. Julia Michalak, EU policy director at IETA, explains ETS design and industrial competitiveness. Irina Breilean, S&P Global carbon price reporter, traces recent price swings. They discuss plunging allowance prices, fund-driven volatility, MSR and free allocation options, and CBAM shifting toward industrial policy.
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INSIGHT

Funds Rapidly Cut Long Positions

  • Financial funds sharply reduced long positions in EUAs from over 100 million to around 30 million allowances.
  • Funds cut exposure as political reform uncertainty and the Middle East war increased market risk and exit volatility.
INSIGHT

War Creates Opposing Price Forces

  • The Middle East conflict has mixed impacts: higher coal margins (bullish) but weaker industrial demand (bearish).
  • Net price direction depends on whether coal-for-gas switching or demand destruction dominates in Europe.
ADVICE

Avoid Ad Hoc Market Interventions

  • Let the EU ETS market operate without ad hoc political interventions to preserve predictability.
  • Julia Michalak warns quick actions like releasing extra supply (eg RePower EU) undermine price formation and investor trust.
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