Radio National Breakfast An economist answers your fuel questions
Mar 29, 2026
Warren Hogan, Managing Director of EQ Economics and commentator on inflation and energy, breaks down fuel and macro risks. He explains why Australia may not see immediate gas gains. He discusses recession odds, how fuel price rises spread, housing market impacts, stagflation risks, and business choices around work-from-home and transport.
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Gas Export Windfall Comes Slow Not Instant
- Australia will benefit from higher gas prices but gains arrive gradually through contract renewals and flow first to governments and gas owners.
- Immediate negative effects hit motorists and businesses because Australia imports oil and refined products, so domestic consumers feel the shock quickly.
Duration Of Energy Shock Determines Recession Risk
- A recession in Australia is possible if the conflict causes sustained global production disruption and prolonged higher energy prices or effective rationing of crude supply.
- Short, sharp price spikes under a month are unlikely to trigger a recession; duration of the conflict is the key variable.
Preexisting Inflation Makes Price Pass Through Fast
- Oil price spikes transmit rapidly into other prices in Australia because inflation and excess demand were already present before the shock.
- Within a week transport costs rose and construction inputs like PVC showed secondary price movements, showing quick pass-through.