The Milk Road Show Bitcoin Just Flashed The Same Signals As The 2022 Crash w/ Julio Moreno
May 13, 2026
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant and on-chain analyst, warns the recent Bitcoin surge may echo the 2022 bear-rally pattern. He spotlights rejection at the 200-day moving average, heavy profit-taking, weak spot demand, and key support around the realized price near $70K. Short, cautionary take on why this bounce might not be the durable bull market many expect.
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200-Day Moving Average Rejected The Rally
- Bitcoin's recent rally to ~82K likely hit the 200-day moving average resistance, mirroring 2022's bear-market behavior.
- Julio Moreno notes the 200-day MA at ~82,400 and says daily closes failed to hold above it, signaling a local top.
Unrealized Profit Levels Echo 2022 Peak
- Unrealized profit metrics now match patterns from the 2022 bear-market rally, suggesting a similar local peak.
- Moreno points out traders moved from deep unrealized losses in February to high unrealized profits during this bounce, increasing sell risk.
Massive One-Day Profit Taking Appeared In May
- Realized profit spikes in early May show active profit-taking comparable to December sell pressure.
- CryptoQuant data recorded a one-day realized-profit spike equivalent to ~14,000 BTC, indicating sizable exits.