Money For the Rest of Us What Average Really Looks Like — and Can Managed Futures Help?
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Feb 25, 2026 A deep look at long-term endowment return expectations and why 6%–7% may be more realistic than chasing double digits. A clear primer on managed futures: what they are, how they behave in crises, and why some ETFs held up better than others. Discussion of return stacking, portable alpha, and whether managed futures can serve as portfolio insurance.
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Model Retirement Returns Conservatively At Six Percent
- Use 6%–7% as a realistic expected return when modeling retirement portfolios given recent endowment results.
- J. David Stein notes his model portfolios assume 6%–6.4% with a probable range of 3%–9%.
Personal Private Capital Experience Delivered Low IRR
- J. David Stein recounts investing in FEG fund-of-funds (2011) with capital called over three years and a final IRR of 4.6% across the mix.
- He shows how a 1.3x TVPI converts to a ~2% annualized return, illustrating private capital timing impact.
Managed Futures Rely On Momentum And Trend
- Managed futures invest long or short in futures across commodities, currencies, equity indices and rates and are primarily driven by trend/momentum.
- AQR research and J. David Stein identify momentum as the primary driver of managed futures returns.