The Global Story What next for Iran?
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Mar 2, 2026 
Caroline Hawley, BBC diplomatic correspondent with deep Middle East reporting, offers on-the-ground analysis of Iran's leadership and regional fallout. She discusses the timing and motives behind recent strikes. She outlines Iran's security forces, potential fragmentation, calls for defections, and the wider Gulf and refugee risks. The conversation probes uncertainties about who might lead next.
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Strikes Came Despite Reports Negotiations Were Close
- Timing of the strikes was puzzling because Oman reported talks were near a deal, yet the US judged Iran unserious on missile talks.
- Khalid highlights a contradiction between claims US destroyed Iran's nuclear capacity last year and now asserting imminent danger.
Expect Limited Military Pressure Not Prolonged Occupation
- The US appears to aim for limited strikes without a prolonged occupation and then expect Iranians to determine their future.
- Asma Khalid notes Trump seeks no boots on the ground and hopes limited operations spark domestic change.
Khamenei's Rule Fueled Regional Proxies And Domestic Hardship
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran for over three decades as a hardline cleric who prioritized hostility to the West.
- Caroline Hawley says his rule built proxy deterrence and repression that drained Iran's economy and provoked deep domestic resentment.