Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Steven Jermy: Iran War Endgame & the Global Fallout
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Mar 2, 2026 Steven Jermy, retired Royal Navy Commodore and author of Strategy for Action, draws on decades of command and strategy experience. He discusses strategic confusion around the Iran war, contrasting regime-change aims with Iran’s survival tactics. He examines air operations, ammunition limits, regional escalation risks, and the broader great-power implications for energy and geopolitics.
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Regime Change By Air Is Unrealistic
- The U.S. and Israel appear to aim for regime change in Iran primarily through air power.
- Steve Jermy argues regime change by air is unprecedented and unlikely without substantial ground forces or internal uprising.
Iran Just Needs To Survive To Claim Victory
- Iran's strategic objective is survival rather than outright defeat of Israel or the U.S.
- Jermy compares Iran's posture to Hamas and Hezbollah: inflict significant damage and endure to claim victory.
Campaign Hinges On Sustained Pressure On Israel
- The campaign's outcome hinges on whether Iran can sustain attacks on Israel beyond the early days.
- Jermy expects pressure on U.S. and Israeli ability to sustain bombardment, with a likely decision point around two weeks to a month.
