Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes Europe, Trump and the war in Iran
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Mar 20, 2026 Piotr Buras, Warsaw-based ECFR analyst on Polish security. Arturo Varvelli, Rome ECFR expert on Italian politics. Camille Lons, Paris ECFR analyst on French defense. Jana Puglierin, Berlin ECFR specialist on German foreign policy. Carla Hobbs, head of ECFR Madrid on Spanish politics. They debate Spain’s firm rejection of the Iran war. They unpack Germany’s balancing act, France’s show of force, Italy’s ambiguity and Poland’s cautious margin.
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Spain's Clear Legal And Political Rejection Of US Strike
- Pedro Sánchez publicly condemned the US strike as illegal and refused US use of Rota and Morón bases.
- Spain framed No a la guerra from Iraq protests and used public opposition (only 10% pro‑Trump) to justify distancing from the US.
Delayed European Solidarity Amplified Spain's Complaints
- Spain expected European backing after Trump's insult, but initial German responses were slow and required public course correction by CDU leaders.
- Madrid sensed delayed solidarity, later partially rectified by Merz's statement of EU unity.
Three Lenses Shaped Germany's Shift
- Germany perceives the Iran war through three lenses: dependence on the US, the Ukraine resource drain, and the Staatsräson to defend Israel.
- That mix pushed Berlin from reluctant support to a public distancing, shaped by domestic politics and upcoming regional elections.